‘Knife-edge’ Makerfield by-election could be handed to Labour’s Andy Burnham by Nigel Farage rival running against Reform, says polling guru

Andy Burnham could be handed victory in the Makerfield by-election in which Nigel Farage is running against Reform UK, according to Britain’s leading pollsters.

The mayor of Greater Manchester is hoping to secure a return to Westminster to challenge the Labor candidate and Sir Keir Starmer at the election on June 18.

The first poll of the by-election campaign showed Mr Burnham with a narrow lead over Reform candidate Robert Kenyon.

And Reformation figures fear their chances of success are being thwarted The Restore Britain group, led by Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe, is also a candidate.

Professor Sir John Curtice said Restore’s run in the by-election was ‘good news’ for Mr Burnham as it threatened to split the Right vote in the constituency.

The top pollster added that Mr Lowe’s party was ‘making life a lot harder for Reformation’ in a by-election that was ‘on a knife’s edge’.

It comes as the Green Party announced a new candidate for the Makerfield contest after its previous selection withdrew from the contest.

Manchester city councilor Sarah Wakefield, described as a Greens hopeful, said her message was ‘the future can be better and fairer than the failed status quo’.

Reform figures fear their chances of success will be thwarted by Restore Britain, a coalition led by Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe, who is also running

Previous Greens candidate Chris Kennedy withdrew after just nine hours, citing ‘personal and family reasons’.

He apologized after it was reported that he had shared a social media post describing an attack on Jewish ambulances in north London as a ‘false flag’.

The first poll of the by-election campaign showed Mr Burnham (with 43 per cent support) with a three-point lead over Reform’s Mr Kenyon (40 per cent).

Restore came in third place in the Survation poll with 7 percent support.

To talk Telegram Of the Makerfield by-election Sir John said: ‘This place is on a knife edge in terms of what is sometimes thought of as the Right bloc and the Left bloc.

‘The reform seems to have succeeded in squeezing the votes of the Conservative Party, judging by the transfer figures. But Restore Britain intervenes and makes life for the Reformation much more difficult.

‘On the one hand, for Burnham, Restore Britain’s intervention is certainly good news.

‘On the other hand, if Reform can squeeze out those Restore votes (because they have lost an eighth of the 2024 electorate to Restore) it also suggests that Reform could outperform Burnham even if this poll is correct.’

Greens’ Westminster leader admits party will voteThey pulled out all the stops in the by-election campaign to give Labor a better chance of winning.

North Herefordshire MP Ellie Chowns said on Monday that Zack Polanski’s party would not be throwing the ‘kitchen sink’ in the upcoming contest – with a seam visible on the left.

Speaking at the Hay Festival, Dr. Chowns said: ‘I think there is a question in this particular constituency about the extent to which any party can throw the kitchen sink in a campaign.

‘We threw the kitchen sink at Gorton and Denton and won. Makerfield is a different kettle of fish.’

The Greens’ play at Makerfield now puts more pressure on the union right to keep Mr Burnham out of No 10.

Commenting on the Greens’ plans, former Conservative Cabinet minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said: ‘I fear the Left are politically smarter than the Right. They were clearly collaborating informally on seats at the last election and now they are admitting this for the Makerfield by-election.

‘The right should learn from this and work together in a similar way. As Margaret Thatcher said, “Marxists get up early in the morning to advance their cause.”

‘We must rise even earlier to defend our freedom. ‘Unfortunately we’re lying in bed now.’