What We Know And Don’t Know About The Emerging Deal To End The Iran War

CAIRO (AP) — The United States and Iran appear to be moving closer to ending the deal war and hungry Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said on Monday that negotiations were “progressing well” but reiterated his warning that conflicts would continue if no agreement was reached.

It is unclear when or how the agreement will be finalized and when its various parts will come into force. The details come from two regional officials and a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations.

An Iranian delegation led by Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf traveled to Qatar on Monday as part of the talks, but it was not immediately clear what would be discussed. Under the leadership of Kalibaf Historical face-to-face meetings We were in Pakistan last month with Vice President JD Vance.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said that although agreement had been reached on “most of the issues”, there was still work to be done. “To say that this means that a deal is on the verge of being signed is not something anyone would argue,” he told reporters.

Here’s what we know and what we don’t know:

In the 12 weeks since the United States and Israel launched the war with attacks that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, Tehran has insisted that any deal must focus on ending hostilities on all fronts. This includes Lebanon, where Iranian-backed forces are present. Hezbollah The militant group has been fighting Israel since two days before the war began.

A fragile ceasefire has been in place since April 7 despite sporadic drone and missile attacks on the United Arab Emirates. some fever changes In the Strait of Hormuz. A more permanent ceasefire would allow global shipping, including an estimated 20 percent of the world’s oil, to begin flowing through the strait again. This will also allow for the reconstruction of energy and other infrastructure in the region.

Both regional officials said the draft agreement included an end to the war between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as a commitment not to interfere in the internal affairs of regional countries. This is a reference to Iran’s support for proxy forces, including Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hamas militants in Gaza and Shiite armed groups in Iraq.

The United States wants Israel to be free to respond to what it sees as threats in Lebanon, but Iran refuses, a regional official said. The US official said the agreement would guarantee Israel’s right to take action in self-defense against imminent threats.

The stated goals of the United States and Israel were to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program, curb its missile program, and end its support for armed proxies.

But Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, which was open to international shipping before the war, quickly rose to the top of global concern as hundreds of ships carrying oil, natural gas, fertilizer and other materials were stranded, causing prices to soar far beyond the region.

According to the resulting agreement, the strait will be gradually reopened in parallel with the US ending the agreement. Blockade of Iranian ports This ban was implemented on April 17, district officials said. The blockade has limited Iran’s ability to transport its oil and bring in much-needed cash for its long-suffering economy.

One of the officials briefed on the negotiations said the United States would allow Iran to sell its oil through sanctions waivers. Sanctions relief and the release of billions of dollars of frozen Iranian funds will be discussed within a 60-day period, the official said.

The basis of the tension lies in international concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and its search for nuclear weapons. USA and Israel evaluated highly complex military operations to go in and extract its highly enriched uranium.

Under the potential deal, Tehran would agree to give up this stockpile, according to regional officials. How Iran gives up will be subject to further negotiations over the 60-day period, an official with direct knowledge of the talks said. Some of these will be diluted and the rest will be transferred to a third country, the official said. Russia offered to buy it.

A US official confirmed the 60-day deadline and said sanctions would not be eased if Iran does not give up its stockpiles.

Iranian spokesman Baghaei said, “The focus of the negotiations is to end the war and we are not discussing the details of the nuclear issue at this stage.”

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% purity; That’s a technical step short of the 90% weapons-grade level.

While Iran insists its program is peaceful, it says it has an “inalienable” right to nuclear technology. On Sunday, President Masoud Pezeshkian told state television that they were ready to “guarantee to the world that we are not seeking nuclear weapons.”

“Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are going well!” Trump wrote on social media on Monday. “It’ll just be a Big Deal for everyone or no Deal at all – Back to the War Front and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever – And no one wants that!”

Despite claims of progress, many issues appear to be unresolved, such as whether Iran will be able to enrich uranium and, in particular, the fate of its missile program, which Israel sees as a major threat.

Any discussion of a leadership change in Tehran appears to be over as the United States and Israel go to war in hopes of seeing Iranians rise up against their government following nationwide protests earlier in the year.

As for Iran’s past stated goals during negotiations, there does not appear to be any mention of withdrawing US forces from the region or reparing the damage caused by the war.

Superville reported from Washington and Anna reported from Lowville, New York.