Why the over 8.5 is the play as struggling Cubs and Pirates starters face off in Pittsburgh today

Tuesday was just a 1-1 day, nothing special but not a complete disaster either. One of my favorite things about baseball is that we can bet every day. We not only place bets on a daily basis, but we also have the opportunity to read individual series.

Unlike every other sport, where there is usually only one game outside of the playoffs, the miniseries gives us a chance to read about team performances.

It doesn’t take much to look to see that the Chicago Cubs are in terrible shape right now. They lost their last 10 matches. A little over a week ago the team was 29-16. But the situation is even worse than that. They lost 14 of the last 16 matches.

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So far in May the team has gone 10-14. This means they lost more games this month than all of March and April combined. This is not just a problem; His pitching is an issue (mostly) due to health, but his hitting is also gone.

The team scored more than three runs just twice in its 14 losses. The Cubs have 28 runs over those 14 losses. Since the losing streak began on May 9, they have scored more than three runs just three times and are averaging two runs per game.

Today, they turn to veteran Jameson Taillon, who is 2-4 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He has struggled on the road this year, giving up 10 home runs in 28.1 innings. He faced the Pirates once this year, and they rocked him with six earned runs on six hits (three homers) in six innings.

The Pittsburgh Pirates currently have the same record as the Cubs, but they haven’t been foolproof this season. They didn’t go on a 10-game losing streak, but they did see some troublesome overtimes. Last year’s revamped Pirates are hitting better and their pitching seems to be doing their part, so at least things are looking up. It is very likely that this year will be a year where they can win the Wild Card and even the division. The division is probably tough because everyone in it is still above .500.

Chicago Cubs’ Jameson Taillon pitches during the eighth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx on July 7, 2023. (Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)

If the Cubs have a chance today, it’ll be because Bubba Chandler is on the mound for the Pirates. He is 1-6 on the season with a 4.79 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He was worse off at home than away and at the Pirates. Additionally, the Pirates have given him almost no run support this season. The Pirates are 2-8 in their starts this year. He has only two starts in which he allowed more than three earned runs in the game. He has faced the Cubs once this season, allowing three earned runs in 5.1 innings pitched.

It seems silly to support the Cubs right now. They have to win eventually, right? To me today gives them as good an opportunity as any. The wind won’t be a big deal and the weather should be nice today. However, it is worth noting that the wind was blowing at about five miles per hour. I’ll be backing the 8.5 over today because I think both starters should allow some runs. The Cubs haven’t scored lately, but if the Pirates can score more goals they can get into the nine innings against Taillon.

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Konnor Griffin of the Pittsburgh Pirates broke his bat on a throw from San Diego Padres pitcher Germán Márquez and pitched to end the bottom of the second inning at Pittsburgh on April 6, 2026. (Gene J. Puskar/AP)

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