Reform UK’s support is more than a ‘protest’ vote, research suggests
Support for Reformation in the UK was not merely a “protest” vote and was driven by ideology rather than dissatisfaction with the state of the UK, a major study has suggested.
According to the British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey, reform voters stand out most for their attitudes towards cultural issues such as immigration and trans rights.
Leading pollster and BSA co-author Sir John Curtice described Reform supporters as “highly ideological” and “capable of a level of emotional commitment that neither Labor nor the Conservatives have managed to inspire in voters for decades”.
Sir John added that although there was probably a “ceiling” on the number of votes Nigel Farage’s party could get, its potential to win the general election was high enough.
At a briefing on the findings, he said Reform had overtaken Labor in the polls, partly because the Conservative Party was “at breakfast, lunch and dinner”, but added that the party was “unlikely to go above” the 32 per cent it recorded in polls earlier this year.
While this level of support in previous years may not have been enough to win a general election, “it’s a potentially winning number because of the fragmentation of our politics more broadly,” he said.
BSA research has found that Reform supporters are more dissatisfied with the state of the country and their own personal situation than other voters.
60 per cent said they were “very dissatisfied” with the NHS, compared with 51 per cent of the public overall, while 27 per cent said they had “difficulty” with their current household income – five points higher.
However, they come to the fore more on cultural issues; Three in four (75 per cent) say immigrants undermine Britain’s culture, while 35 per cent of the public prefer this rate.
88 percent said equal opportunities for transgender people had gone too far, compared with 48 percent for the general public. 78 percent said that the benefits provided to the unemployed were too high compared to 60 percent.
Sir John said the party’s support was rooted in the vote to leave the EU in 2016, which he described as “driven by cultural questions of national identity, immigration and pride in British history”.
He added: “Reform has effectively absorbed the coalition of voters who voted for Boris Johnson to ‘get Brexit done’ in 2019.
“The party’s future prospects depend not only on whether the economy and health care have improved, and whether voters will be more satisfied with the way they are being governed come the next election.
“They are also heavily reliant on whether he can continue to convince Britain’s more socially conservative voters that he best represents their views.”
The BSA survey, carried out annually by the National Center for Social Research since 1983, surveyed 4,656 people across the UK. The latest release occurred between August and October 2025.
