​Change in arrangement: On the leadership transition in Karnataka

DK Shivakumar, Congress’s most prominent face in Karnataka, is all set to fulfill his long-held ambition of becoming the Chief Minister on June 3. By handing over the baton from Karnataka’s longest-serving Chief Minister Siddaramaiah to Mr Shivakumar, the Congress appears to have resolved a grievance among his supporters who believe he deserves the job when he returns to power in 2023 after campaigning as the party’s State unit president. Clearly, the Congress national leadership appears to have handled the transition in Karnataka better than it did in Rajasthan and Punjab in 2020-21; The decisions he took here – retaining Ashok Gehlot despite Sachin Pilot’s rebellion (2020) and replacing Amarinder Singh with Charanjit Singh Channi (2021) – failed to yield results in the Assembly elections. The Congress high command also carried out the change of guard in Karnataka keeping the 2028 Assembly elections in mind. There are signs that anti-government sentiment is getting stronger. Since the Congress has chosen Mr. Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga, to replace Mr. Siddaramaiah, the BJP-Janata Dal (Secular) alliance is likely to contest the poll together, otherwise the two parties will gain little politically. Also, senior leaders of the JD(S) belong to the Vokkaliga community and Mr. Shivakumar has been engaged in a decades-long contest with them for influence over the community, especially in the Old Mysuru region.

If the Congress and Mr. Shivakumar play their cards well, they can break Karnataka’s 35-year-old record in voting for incumbent governments. Having successfully managed political crises, Mr. Shivakumar must now have a plan to win in 2028. He should also bring all sections of the party with him and adopt a consultative approach to important policy decisions. Despite the implementation of various welfare and populist schemes, Karnataka maintained fiscal discipline under the Congress government. In the just-concluded Financial Year 2025-26, the revenue deficit of around ₹ 19,500 crore is the lowest among similarly situated southern States. While this may offer some consolation, Karnataka’s total revenue receipts increased by a modest 6.3%. Reducing stark inequalities between regions should be a priority. In 2024-25, Bengaluru Urban district contributed around 40% of Karnataka’s GNH, while Dakshina Kannada and Belagavi accounted for 5.3% and 3.9% respectively. The Human Development Index also shows that regional development is uneven: at 0.738, Bengaluru Urban, Yadgir (0.538), Kalaburagi (0.539) and Raichur (0.562) are at the bottom. At a time when states, especially those ruled by non-BJP parties, are facing shrinking fiscal and development space, Chief Ministers of the States should focus on resolving the chronic problems affecting the underprivileged. Mr. Shivakumar’s experience could help him fulfill this responsibility.