Radhika Gupta flags India’s dropping fertility rate; calls childcare crucial for GDP growth — ‘Female workforce matters’
Pointing to India’s declining fertility rate, which is currently below replacement rate, Radhika Gupta, Managing Director and CEO of Edelweiss Mutual Fund, asked a serious question to the Indian economy: “Should women work?”
In her latest social media post, Radhika was referring to data from the Sample Registration System (SRS) report 2024, which said that India’s Total Fertility Rate has decreased from 2.1 to 1.9 children per woman.
The replacement rate means that a country no longer has enough children to replace its population over time.
He stated that female labor force is much more important in the current economic scenario and underlined that child care and care infrastructure are the main needs of the age.
‘Every employee is more important’:
“India’s fertility rate dropping below replacement rate should spark a new economic debate,” Radhika Gupta said in a viral X post. “India still has demographic momentum because we are a young country, but structurally this changes the long-term growth math.”
“When fewer children are born, every worker becomes more important,” he said. “Productivity is more important. Skills are more important. Women’s participation in the workforce is much more important.”
But Radhika noted that this creates a tension that “many developed economies are already experiencing”: “As women become more educated and more engaged in the workforce, fertility rates often fall further.”
Edelweiss MF CEO said the real question is not whether women should work or not, because the answer is a clear yes “from an economic and social perspective”. The real question is: “How can we make career and family sustainable together?”
Radhika Gupta noted that countries that manage this relatively better do not solve the problem with rhetoric. “They have built ecosystems: child care, flexible working, shorter commutes, family support systems, organized care infrastructure.”
He stated that Indians have been thinking of infrastructure as roads, ports and energy for years. But he said: “In the next phase of India’s growth, childcare and care infrastructure could become an equally important economic infrastructure.”
“It’s not just artificial intelligence. Human involvement itself can be one of the biggest drivers of growth,” he added.
What did the report say?
Most states are currently below the replacement fertility standard of 2.1, according to the 2024 SRS report.
The report states that only six states (Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand) continue to register fertility rates above replacement level.
Delhi recorded the lowest fertility rate in the country, with an average of 1.2 births per woman.
Why is replacement level important?
According to demographers, a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 is generally considered the level needed to maintain a stable population. When fertility remains below this threshold for a long period of time, population growth gradually slows and may eventually decline.
While India’s population is still growing, the continued decline in fertility suggests that population growth could slow significantly in the coming decades, potentially leading to population decline later this century, experts said.
They warned that such trends could contribute to the aging of society, the decline of the working-age population and increasing pressure on welfare and health systems.
