Russia’s fuel crisis intensifies as Ukraine steps up strikes on occupied territories

Ukraine’s sustained campaign of drone strikes against Russian-occupied areas is disrupting Moscow’s supply lines and intensifying a fuel crisis already triggered by long-range attacks on Russia’s oil refineries.

There are especially serious logistical difficulties and deficiencies in Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014.

Much of the trouble stems from Ukraine’s recent attacks on a key highway and bridge connecting the southern Russian city of Rostov to Crimea via the occupied port city of Mariupol.

Analyst Clément Molin of the French-based think tank Atum Mundi told the BBC that the road was “basically the backbone of the Russian occupation of the south”.

Molin said Ukraine has carried out 300 drone attacks on trucks, including 30 tankers, since the beginning of May, and the campaign has become even more intense this month.

The operation has tangible effects on Crimea. The peninsula is of strategic importance to Moscow as it is used by Moscow forces to launch drones and missiles towards the rest of Ukraine.

Crimea, with its Mediterranean climate and long beaches, is also a popular holiday destination for Russians during the summer months.

Disgruntled tourists and locals voiced the disruption in fuel supply on social media.

Videos show long lines at gas stations across the region, with residents saying they routinely have to queue for up to 10 hours for fuel.

“I currently walk to work. Of course, it is less convenient than driving, but it is not a huge problem,” a resident of the city of Simferopol told the independent website Bereg. “Now all I have to do is buy a horse!” he added.

At the vast majority of gas stations in Crimea, locals can now only purchase up to 20 liters (4 gallons) of fuel each using prepaid coupons, if available.

Russian tourists who came to the region before the start of the crisis are now having difficulty finding fuel to go. The problem is so serious that local authorities based in Moscow had to open a special hotline to assist them.

There are also reports that gasoline and diesel prices have increased rapidly due to shortage.

“Unfortunately, it does not seem possible to fully meet fuel demand at the moment,” Kremlin-appointed regional head Sergei Aksyonov said on June 5. he said. He said hundreds of buses will not leave warehouses due to shortage.

However, roads remain the last way for supplies to reach the peninsula. The sea route has become very dangerous after some ferries going to Crimea were decommissioned by Ukraine.

Previous attacks or threats of attacks by Ukraine had restricted traffic on the Kerch bridge connecting Crimea to the Russian mainland.

Craig Kennedy, an expert on the Russian oil industry and a fellow at Harvard University’s Davis Centre, told the BBC: “I wouldn’t want to put a lorry full of diesel on the Kerch Bridge, no, that would just invite trouble.”

“So you’ll have to bring it overland via Mariupol. And you’re defenseless the whole way there.”

Some Russian sources claim that Ukrainian attacks on logistics routes are already affecting the Russian army’s ability to fight.

“The attacks that emptied gas stations for civilians also affect supplies going to troops in the south,” Rybar, a pro-Kremlin Russian military analysis account, wrote on its Telegram account.

“The logistics crisis does not distinguish between military and civilian needs, it hits everything at once.”

On June 7, a Ukrainian attack damaged an important bridge in Chohnar in northern Crimea, which connects the bridge to the rest of Ukraine and is used by Russian troops and civilian vehicles traveling along the R-280 highway. Traffic was stopped on the bridge.

Problems with fuel supplies are exacerbated by Ukraine’s long-range attacks on Russian oil refineries and oil depots, which Kiev has been carrying out for several months.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that about 40% of Russia’s “primary oil refining capacity” was disabled in May due to such strikes.

Craig Kennedy said Ukraine’s expanding campaign against Russia’s supply network now sees it shifting from targeting major refineries to smaller, local distribution networks.

“This creates a more focused or concentrated impact on local populations and the military in certain regions, such as Crimea,” he said.

Drone attacks also affected other regions of occupied Ukraine, including the Luhansk and Kherson regions.

Some of these were carried out by the 413th separate battalion of the Ukrainian Unmanned System Forces “Raid”, whose commander Yevhen Karas told the BBC from an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

Karas said the drones have not encountered much resistance from Russian air defenses in recent missions.

“It was a great feeling to be able to fly wherever we wanted,” he told the BBC.

According to Karas, disrupting Russia’s military logistics is a key priority for his unit.

“The main course is Russian warehouses, oil and fuel tanks, buildings and even small bunkers with Russian officers,” he added.

In recent weeks, Russia has claimed civilians have been killed in Ukrainian attacks on occupied territories, including an attack on a bus in Kherson as well as a commuter train in occupied Crimea.

A Ukrainian drone crashed into a passenger train in the region again, killing the co-driver and injuring the driver, Crimea’s Russian-appointed leader Aksyonov said on Monday.

While Karas did not comment specifically on any incidents, he said: “This is a very busy area and it is clear that heavy trucks and large transport vehicles are at risk of being hit due to the use of heavy trucks and large transport vehicles by the Russians.”

Therefore, “there may be mistakes, but this is not a deliberate targeting of civilian vehicles,” he added.

However, the risks are great and as a result of the attacks, the movements of civilians were restricted on two important roads connecting the occupied regions to Russia.

Moscow-appointed authorities in the occupied Luhansk region banned bus and bus services on two highways leading to Mariupol and Crimea and urged local residents not to use these highways “for security reasons.”

The combined effect of Ukraine’s medium- and long-range strikes not only affects Russia’s ability to wage war, but also serves Zelensky’s declared goal of “bringing the war to Russia.”