Can Democrats take the Senate? Maine voters may provide a clue
WASHINGTON— Democrats’ path to winning control of the Senate likely runs through Maine; Voters here will go to the polls on Tuesday after several days of growing concern from the party about Graham Platner, who faces a series of controversies as the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Democrats not just in Maine but across the country — including Texas, Iowa and other red states where the party’s mission to flip Senate seats would become more urgent if the party’s prospects in Maine fade — were closely watching Platner’s performance in Tuesday’s primary.
“They’ve probably become, if not less optimistic, at least more nervous in the last 10 days,” said Mark Brewer, a political science professor at the University of Maine.
Democrats face a tough map as they look to regain control of both houses of Congress and take back power in Washington. Brewer said outgoing senior Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seen as one of the party’s best bets.
Platner’s primary opponent, Maine Gov. Janet Mills, paved the way for him by suspending her campaign in late April. He is generally expected to prevail as the Democratic nominee, but what percentage of the vote his party receives could help indicate how strong his candidacy will be in the general election, said John Cluverius, director of polling research at the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion.
“The situation is critical [for Democrats]Because without Maine, to win back the Senate you would have to win the states that Donald Trump won overwhelmingly,” Cluverius said.
Platner, an oyster farmer and Marine Corps veteran, emerged as a political outsider and quickly gained popularity.
But obvious scandals followed him. The last one came on Thursday The New York Times reported Three of Platner’s ex-girlfriends described his behavior as volatile and, by one account, physically rude. who is the platner rejected The latter allegation touched on controversy over his previous messaging to women outside his marriage, his Nazi-style tattoo, and old Reddit posts.
Over the weekend, Platner signaled confidence. He took questions from the audience at a town hall on Sunday, and a campaign official said Friday saw the campaign’s best day of fundraising since Mills suspended Platner’s bid for the nomination, bringing in $200,000 in 24 hours.
“From the beginning, Maine, you had my back,” Platner told supporters at the Friday rally. He received a standing ovation as he continued: “Now, while every piece of that history and journey is being dug up, prosecuted, and weaponized, you’ll have my back.”
Platner stated that the allegations against him were “politically motivated” and false.
Brewer said the controversy surrounding him could help Collins, who has a track record of political survival. The last time Collins was reelected was 2020, when polls predicted she would lose to her Democratic opponent, but she secured re-election even as the state favored Democrat Joe Biden in the presidential race.
“His positioning has probably improved over the last couple of weeks,” Brewer said. “He mostly stayed out of it and let the negative stories pile up.
Last week, Democratic leaders largely sided with Platner, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer stating the party would continue to support him. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) campaigned with him at the Friday rally. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) recorded an appeal to potential voters on her behalf, and Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) participated in a virtual fundraiser, according to a source familiar with the plans.
Culverius said the political calculus comes down to “whether they would prefer a Senate majority with Graham Platner rather than a Senate minority without Graham Platner.”
Democrats need to flip at least four Republican seats to gain control of the Senate; This is a difficult task. The Maine seat is the only possible Democratic swing in a state favored by Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris over President Trump in 2024.
Democrats are also seeking victory in Texas, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina or Alaska, which all favor Trump in 2024. The party also needs to defend its seats in competitive races in Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia.
How Platner affects his party’s chances of gaining control of the Senate depends on what happens next, Brewer said.
“What else are we going to see? And I don’t know that anyone knows that at this point,” Brewer said. “I think that’s what Democrats should be most worried about. Is it that bad, or are there other things going on?”
Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston, said voters are willing to ignore the scandal more easily than in the past. And in these midterm elections, Democratic voters think the stakes are “extremely high.”
“Most voters are looking at the odds of winning and losing,” he said. “The parties are concerned about winning”
