Why Pauline Hanson may never be prime minister

The current media narrative is full of stories about the rise of One Nation and the resurgence of the Senator Pauline Hanson. But the fundamental truths of Australian democracy have been lost in the hype because Senator Hanson becoming prime minister is a very complex process.

The media continues to see the award. All politicians know this, including Pauline Hanson.

This is not a criticism of Senator Hanson. Fair play to Pauline, she’s just doing what all politicians do. He knows his brand. He knows your tactics: say something controversial; the media puts him in the spotlight and every time he appears Sky News or Seven or wherever its brand grows.

But growing calls for him to become Prime Minister ignore the fundamental realities of Australian democracy. Maybe it’s time for a little reality check.

Sorry Hansonites, it’s highly doubtful Pauline will become prime minister.

Here’s why.

Senators can become prime ministers, but only for a short time. parliament meetingThey must resign from the Senate and run for the Lower House seat. A former senator had previously been Australia’s prime minister, but only then John Gorton resigned from the Senate posthumously Harold Holt. However, Gorton was elected via by-election in the Higgins seat of Holt, a very safe and comfortable Liberal seat.

Under the parliamentary convention inherited from the Westminster system, in responsible government the prime minister must have the confidence of members of the Lower House because this represents a majority vote. So Labor has 94 seats, so it has 94 MPs in parliament. Anthony Albanese Their confidence as Party Leaders.

Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison He was not initially selected as Prime Minister. He was elevated to this position following a leak against the leadership. Malcolm Turnbull However, he was re-elected to the electorate in 2018 and became Prime Minister in 2019.

Likewise, Gough Whitlam It had a majority in the Lower House but not in the Senate, so it could not pass budget bills and was later dismissed. However, he was replaced by the Leader of the Opposition, not a senator. Malcolm Fraserresult of landslide.

Let’s say Senator Hanson gives up his position. As noted, he will need to run among the local Ipswich electorate. Blair (named after Harold Blairmember of Aborigines Welfare Board in Victoria, Aborigines Progress League, Federal Council for the Development of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander PeoplesAnd Commonwealth Aboriginal Arts Board).

Labor Party Member of Parliament Shayne Neumann he currently holds the seat. According to the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), in the 2025 Federal Elections, Neumann received 36.62 percent of the primary votes. That’s it for him bipartisan choice 57 percent.

This is where it becomes difficult for Senator Hanson to win.

The Greens received 12,104 votes, of which around 11,000 were distributed to Labor after the election. One Nation candidate Brendan KrossIt polled well with 11,344 votes. It can be predicted that Pauline will be much higher in the first preferences. But whether he crossed the line or not depended on preferences. For example, the Marijuana Legalization Party received 5,353 primary votes. So if they decide to go for Labour, that would mean Labor has over 16,000 votes.

Senator Hanson is unlikely to give up his Senator position because it allows for his political platform. But let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that he relinquishes his position as senator. If he is not elected to the Lower House, this political platform disappears.

But let’s say he wins and former Senator Hanson Pauline Hanson becomes an MP. He remains the leader of One Nation and holds his own seat. Barnaby JoyceNew England and Farrer’s seat: three seats. It needs to win 73 more seats because One Nation needs 76 seats to come to power. Demos Australia Based on previous elections and polls, he predicted that One Nation would win 13 seats in the 2025 Elections; but they won zero.

He would clearly win more in the 2029 Election, where the Liberal Party is struggling. But the Liberals were only part of the Coalition, so One Nation would need to take some of the 42 members. Liberal/National seats. Even so, that’s 44 seats, and with some swings against Labor, let’s say One Nation gets another 16 seats.

Total: approximately 60 seats.

Recently a Redbridge poll He predicted One Nation could win 59 seats. However, although the mainstream media attacked this issue vigorously, it did not delve into it in depth. Just 6,000 people took part in the poll from two Sydney electorates, one of which is Wentworth, now held by the Independent MP. Allegra Spender (only defeating Liberal candidate Ro Knox with 129 first preference votes and One Nation candidate James Sternhell received only 2,625 first preference votes).

Given current dissatisfaction with the Liberal Party, most of the approximately 40,000 Liberal voters are likely to switch to One Nation before voting Labour.

Regardless, Labor now has a 94-seat majority. So, even after the previously imagined scenario, One Nation will need to get 16 more seats. This seems unlikely as long as the Greens and Independents continue to win seats and favor Labor.

Nor is Farrer’s One Nation a magical triumph; Labor didn’t even bother to nominate a candidate.

Also, Senator Hanson is 72 years old. Pauline Hanson is One Nation; It is a question of whether the party would be as strong without him. Even if he wins the Lower House seat, it is doubtful that his party will win the 2029 Election. He could potentially have a chance in the 2033 Election, but he will be 79 years old. Since he is determined and determined, he may decide to retire.

A healthy democracy needs a variety of parties that support a variety of points of view. As philosophers, we need Jürgen Habermas he calls it a strictly public space. But in the current climate of political debate and media, we need some reality checks on how modern Australian democracy works.

We are a constitutional monarchy, not a cult of personality. We have preferential voting, as One Nation clearly says wants to eliminatebut preferential voting allows for a larger public sphere.

So One Nation supporters have the right to express their beliefs and ideas within democracy, but media sensationalism aside, their desired outcome is much more complex than shouting. “Pauline as Prime Minister!”