Fire agencies on front foot as dry, warm weather looms
Fire departments are preparing for a possible early start to the season as long-range forecasts point to a drier, warmer winter.
An El Nino weather model Announced overnight by the US federal science agencyChief officer Jason Heffernan said the Victoria Country Fire Authority was put on alert ahead of the fire season.
Australia’s climate is driven by more than just the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern that rotates periodically in the Pacific Ocean and checked but not yet approved by the local weather agency.
But the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest long-term forecasts predict below-average rainfall in parts of southern and eastern Australia over the next three months, and above-average temperatures across much of the country.
To prepare for the upcoming fire season, fire departments can leverage long-range weather forecasts and their own monitoring of soil moisture, fuel loads and other conditions, allowing them to make proactive decisions about sourcing, public education and hazard mitigation.
NSW Rural Fire Service deputy commissioner Ben Millington said recent rainfall had improved water availability in the state, but limited availability was still expected in some areas.
He said dry firefighting techniques, such as using bulldozers to clear containment lines, may be prioritized next season.
Mr Millington stressed conditions were not the same as before the 2019-2020 Black Summer fires, which hit NSW hard and were preceded by a 10-year drought.
“But again, we are well aware that El Niño conditions and these predicted dry conditions could indicate a busy fire season,” he told AAP.
Mr Heffernan said ahead of Victoria’s devastating fire season last summer, the CFA was able to proactively engage with the government to secure extra resources, bulk water and funding for an education campaign.
For the upcoming season, long-term weather and subsoil moisture indicators showed fuel loads across the state were drier than normal, although some rain was expected over the next few weeks.
“The fire season has started early and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another dry, dangerous summer based on the indicators we’re seeing now,” he told AAP.
One El Niño It is a natural climatic factor associated with warmer, drier weather in Australia, particularly in the eastern regions; but it is only one of many factors that can affect weather and climate.
Others include: Indian Ocean DipoleClimate change that is currently neutral and climate change that is currently causing higher temperatures and more erratic and extreme weather events.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts the chance of a very strong — potentially record-breaking — El Niño occurring later in the year at 63 percent; however, a strong event does not necessarily mean there will be strong impacts on Australia’s climate.
Australia’s Associated Press is the beating heart of Australian news. AAP is Australia’s only independent national news channel and has been providing accurate, reliable and fast-paced news content to the media industry, government and corporate sector for 85 years. We inform Australia.
