US-Iran deal could leave Gulf states in the lurch: analysts
Tehran’s air strikes and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have posed an existential threat to the Gulf states and their economic models.
The memorandum of understanding to be signed this week will not permanently end the war. This gives negotiators another 60 days, prolonging the uncertainty that is bad for business.
Experts say that by staying away from the Gulf’s core security concerns, the agreement has made US President Donald Trump eager to end the war as soon as possible, forcing countries in the region to defend their own interests with Iran in order to protect their own interests.
Hasan Alhasan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said everything shows that the memorandum “will almost certainly fail to address Gulf states’ core security concerns about Iran’s offensive military capabilities, particularly its missiles, drones and regional militia networks.”
Gulf leaders have long had close ties to Trump. They showered him with praise, promised to invest billions of dollars in the American economy, and courted his entourage.
However, as the US security umbrella was shaken, “they had to fend for themselves”, according to security expert Andreas Krieg from King’s College London.- Basic demands-
When Trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2015, Gulf countries also supported this move. They have long complained that the deal does not include them and does not address Iran’s missile program and its proxies.
Now they are faced with a temporary solution that will eliminate these concerns once again.
Karim Bitar, a lecturer at Sciences Po in Paris, said the deal was “hastily negotiated and Iran made significantly fewer concessions than in 2015”, adding that Gulf countries “have reason to be skeptical”.
Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key Gulf demand, after the blockade halted oil and gas exports.
But the waterway was only blockaded because of the war.
Additionally, Alhasan said linking the ceasefire to Lebanon and other conflicts gives Iran’s proxy forces “immunity against further Israeli attacks or even attempts by national governments to disarm or integrate these armed groups.”
Since the unstable ceasefire on April 8, Gulf states have reported sporadic attacks.
– To influence –
The United Arab Emirates has reported no new attacks in nearly a month and has since softened its previously hawkish stance on Iran.
“During a period of intense aggression by Iran, the UAE has paired this with rhetoric aimed at creating some form of deterrence… but the UAE is a pragmatic actor,” said Dania Thafer, director of the Gulf International Forum. he said.
He added that the UAE also went to de-escalate tensions as it appeared close to a deal.
Media reports claimed that the UAE moved billions of frozen funds to Iran in exchange for stopping attacks on its territory, but Abu Dhabi denied this.
Qatar, which hosts the largest US base in the region, has refused to enter negotiations under Iranian fire, but hosted an Iranian delegation in May to discuss the release of frozen funds after a ceasefire.
A diplomat told AFP that Qatari negotiators held “17 hours of intense negotiations” in Tehran ahead of the deal being announced on Monday.
According to Thafer, Qatar “played a role trying to secure Gulf interests” during the talks.
Seeking stability while trying to diversify its oil-dependent economy, Saudi Arabia has also deepened its regional alignment with Pakistan, Egypt, Qatar and Türkiye to support diplomatic efforts.
– In the crossfire –
Gulf states found themselves caught between a wounded but emboldened Iran and an unreliable alliance with the United States.
Chatham House Middle East expert Neil Quilliam said the war showed the limits of American power.
Meanwhile, Iran “survived and overcame the US and Israeli decapitation campaign and also showed that it could respond and use Hormuz as leverage,” he said.
In an interview with the New York Times on Sunday, Trump suggested Gulf states pay for American protection against Iran.
Alhasan said, “Gulf countries are being subjected to blackmail by both Iran and the USA.”
“Iran will probably continue to hold the Gulf countries and the Strait of Hormuz hostage due to its nuclear negotiations with the United States,” he said.
“Trump is exploiting the threat posed by Iran to pressure Gulf states to yield to his demands.”
Thafer said Trump was trying to show that Washington could still deter Tehran.
“Iran is weaker but in some ways emboldened because they had the opportunity to test the limits of US power in a worst-case scenario, and they got away with it,” he added.
