Summer forecast gets big update for June. Here’s what to know.
Summer officially begins on June 21, and the temperature rises with it.
Quarterly forecast released June 18 NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center It shows there is a widespread possibility that temperatures will rise above historical averages across much of the country. Oregon and Washington are most likely to exceed “normal” temperatures in July, August and September.
Illinois and parts of Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri are among several states that have about a 30% chance of being below the historical average temperature in NOAA’s forecast, which was created with data from 1991 through 2020.
“What we’re seeing for July, August and September is that the trend is warmer for the majority of the country,” National Weather Service meteorologist Scott Handel said. he said.
The seasonal temperature outlook for summer 2026 released by the Climate Prediction Center shows that the majority of the United States will likely see above-normal temperatures.
The heat is getting worse: See the heat index where you live
Summer 2026 brings the risk of fire and drought
Precipitation over the next three months is expected to vary little compared to historical averages for most of the United States. However, Southern California, Utah and Arizona, as well as parts of Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico, have an “above average” precipitation forecast, which could be especially beneficial for drought-affected and wildfire-prone areas.
Senior meteorologist Chad Merrill AccuWeather The above-average precipitation predicted in these states is due to a combination of monsoon moisture and one to two eastern Pacific tropical storms, he said.
The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook for July, August, and September 2026 shows that some areas in the Southwest could see above-average precipitation.
AccuWeather’s long-range weather forecast identifies an above-average fire risk throughout the fall season in the Northwest; because this region was warmer and drier than average.
Drought is expected to intensify in the northern part of the Rocky Mountains, Merrill said, adding that dry storms could trigger wildfires at the beginning of the monsoon season in the Southwest.
More: The summer solstice is approaching. Things to know about the longest day of the year
The increased humidity present from late July through August can quickly turn the wildfire threat into a flood.
“The Southwest could see a big target where the summer months become very dry, very hot, at risk of wildfires and flash floods,” Merrill said. “We are also seeing a high risk of flooding from North Texas to the Midwest.”
(This story has been updated to meet our standards.)
This article first appeared on USA TODAY: 2026 Summer weather forecast warns of heat, drought and wildfires
