Trump Iran deal strengthens regime’s terror network by leaving it in place

In 1979, American indecision and the abandonment of a staunch ally led to the rise of Islamist terrorism and the loss of pro-Western Iran to the Soviet camp. In 2026, the same reluctance to support Iran’s pro-democracy opposition and recognized leadership has once again strengthened Islamist forces; It has left America humiliated and strategically diminished as the struggle between radical Islamism and Iranian nationalism continues beneath the surface.

Many Iranians see the 1979 rebellion as the beginning of a regime built on violence and terrorism. During the uprising, Trump voiced his support for the Iranians as they continued to reach an agreement with Tehran. But many regime opponents later thanked Trump and Netanyahu for standing up to Ali Khamenei, whom they see as the primary symbol of oppression and bloodshed in Iran.

Reasonable people can support or oppose the agreement. However, some facts should not be ignored. Throughout history, dictators and terrorist movements have not changed their nature simply because others chose to negotiate with them. A dictator does not become a friend of freedom overnight, nor does a terrorist organization suddenly distribute flowers and chocolates to the people it oppresses and humiliates.

The belief that Iran’s barbaric system of governance can fundamentally change without dismantling its destructive ideological foundations and propaganda machinery is unrealistic. The structure remains intact. The institutions that keep the regime alive continue to exist. The elimination of a few commanders or military assets does not eliminate an entrenched junta and ideological system.

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The elimination of Qassem Soleimani and Ali Khamenei dealt a significant blow to the regime’s prestige and morale. But as the larger structure remains standing, those who inherit power now seek survival and time. They make promises that may appeal to Trump, but many Iranians do not believe them.

As a result, Trump, once seen by many Iranians as a hero for standing up to the Tehran dictator, is now seen by many of those same people as having abandoned his cause in favor of another deal with the regime. Many opponents of the regime believe that another agreement was made at the expense of those who lost their lives during the uprising.

One of Trump’s most important achievements in his first term was the elimination of Soleimani, the architect of Iran’s regional terror network. If the deaths of Imad Mughniyeh and Osama bin Laden were important milestones in the fight against Islamic terrorism, the elimination of Soleimani can be said to be even more important.

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But Soleimani’s death did not destroy the structure he helped build. Ahmed Vahidi, now one of the most influential figures of the post-Khamenei order, remained a part of the system. The overseas terrorist apparatus of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Quds Force continues to exist.

Soleimani’s end did not destroy the structure he built. The terrorist network survived. As a result, many fear that the agreement, similar to previous diplomatic openings with Tehran, will encourage a renewed sense of impunity in the regime’s security establishment.

Another important development was the weakening of Tehran’s proxy network and the decline of its regional influence. When Israel perceived an existential threat to its survival, the Mossad—under the leadership of Yossi Cohen and later David Barnea—managed to inflict significant damage on the Islamic Republic’s transnational terrorist network stretching across the so-called Shiite Crescent.

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But the network did not disappear. The regime’s “4H” axis (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi militia) remains intact, and Tehran continues to rely on these groups to put pressure on Israel when necessary.

The third important factor was Trump’s support for Israel in the face of Iran’s direct missile and drone attacks. Khamenei’s threats against Israel and the Jewish people echoed rhetoric previously associated with some of the most notorious dictators of the modern era. In fact, Khamenei was one of the main figures behind the forces responsible for the October 7, 2023 atrocity.

Trump, once seen by many Iranians as a hero for standing up to the Tehran dictator, is now seen by many of those same people as having abandoned his cause in favor of another deal with the regime.

For decades, the regime has relied on proxy groups to confront Israel. But it eventually crossed a historic threshold by launching direct missile and drone attacks against the Jewish state. In the eyes of many opponents of the regime, this revealed the true nature of Tehran’s ambitions.

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Many Iranians welcomed efforts by Israel and the United States to weaken the Islamic Republic and the Revolutionary Guard, hoping that increased pressure on the regime would move Iran closer to freedom and democracy. From this perspective, President Trump’s support for Israel remains one of the most important and praiseworthy aspects of his Middle East policy.

But the biggest danger still remains. If the regime is given the opportunity to rebuild, neither the terrorist infrastructure nor its ambitions for regional domination will disappear. Within the ideological framework created by Khomeini, hostility towards the USA and Israel continues to be the basic principle. The regime may change its survival tactics, but it does not give up its long-term goals.

If Tehran manages to buy time and regain its strength, the same Islamist terrorist network will re-emerge. The regime’s “4H” axis (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and Hashd al-Shaabi) will remain in place, along with other terrorist organizations linked to Tehran’s regional strategy. Many Iranians believe that the previous Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) strengthened the regime’s terrorist infrastructure rather than benefiting ordinary citizens. Critics fear new financial aid will have the same result.

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After all, it’s not a matter of signing or rejecting an agreement. The real issue is preventing the reconstruction of a transnational terrorist infrastructure that could once again threaten American interests, US allies, and regional stability.

Ironically and sadly, President Trump’s desire to reach a new agreement with Tehran suggests there is no real desire in Washington to pursue regime change in Iran. Critics argue that peaceful coexistence with this cancerous regime in the heart of the Middle East is simply not possible. In reality, the regime can change its tactics but not its nature.

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The regime also faces a growing internal crisis, and the forces fueling the uprising have not disappeared. Many Iranians believe that the demands of the protest movement were ultimately ignored and that the current agreement distracts from the central struggle within Iran.

Iran’s future will ultimately be determined not by agreements signed abroad, but by the ongoing struggle between the regime struggling to survive and the society demanding political change.

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