Britain left the EU 10 years ago. Its politics has been an unruly mess ever since

Brexit has torn apart the European Union and fractured British politics.

The United Kingdom is about to get its seventh prime minister since June 23, 2016 (10 years ago Tuesday), when the country voted 52 percent to 48 percent to leave the EU after more than four decades of membership. Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, who had called for a referendum but campaigned for Britain to remain in the bloc, resigned the next day.

His successors all grappled with the consequences of this rupture, largely unsuccessfully. The latest is Labor Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who announced on Monday that he was resigning after two years of a stagnant economy, broken government and a divided and exhausted electorate; All of this is at least partly the legacy of Brexit.

Chris Gray, an academic who has studied the effects of Britain leaving the EU, said that although the decision had faded from the headlines, the “underground trace of Brexit” still lingered in Britain’s increasingly unruly politics.

Brexit campaign channeled discontent

Brexit campaigners promised that leaving the then 28-member political and economic bloc would allow the UK to “take back control” of its laws, economy and borders.

While the “leave” campaign focused largely on the economic downsides of leaving, the “leave” side was emotional.

Boris Johnson, a leading Brexit campaigner who later became prime minister, said a few weeks before the referendum: “We can see sunny pastures ahead. I believe we would be crazy not to take this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to walk through the door.”

Margaret MacMillan, professor emeritus of history at the University of Toronto, said Brexit was fueled by a number of motives, including “nostalgia for an imagined past.”

“It went against what people saw as unrestricted immigration. It went against what people saw as EU regulations. And then there was a mixture of nostalgia: ‘We fought the Second World War alone.’ This was of course not true.

“It has never been clearly explained what Brexit might entail.”

Trying to make Brexit work made everyone unhappy

Hard realities soon collided with Brexiteers’ bold promises of immigration controls, trade deals, more money for public services and an end to complex regulations from Brussels.

The acrimonious divorce negotiations continued for years. The United Kingdom officially left the bloc on January 31, 2020, followed by an 11-month transition period until the final split.

Cameron’s successor, Prime Minister Theresa May, resigned in 2019 after failing to find acceptable exit terms for a divided Parliament.

Johnson replaced May and promised to “get Brexit done” and managed to secure a simple trade deal after negotiations that had frozen UK-EU relations.

He was sacked by the Conservative Party in mid-2022 following mounting financial and ethical scandals. His replacement, Liz Truss, remained in office for just 49 days. His successor, Rishi Sunak, thawed frosty EU relations without making major changes.

Starmer has promised a “renewal” but has refused to consider rejoining the bloc’s frictionless single market, free of tariffs and other trade barriers.

While we hand over power, Brexit will remain unfinished business.

Political parties splintered

Historian Anthony Seldon said Cameron called for the referendum in the hope of ending the row over relations with Europe that is tearing the Conservative Party apart. It didn’t happen.

“The people who were obsessed with it are still obsessed with it. Britain’s problems continue,” Seldon told Times Radio.

During the divorce negotiations, Conservatives who wanted a softer Brexit and closer ties with the EU were ousted from the party by the victorious pro-Brexit faction.

Although Labor is pro-EU, it also has an internal division between those who want to move closer to, or even rejoin, the bloc, and senior leaders like Starmer who want to avoid reopening old wounds.

A decade later, millions of voters have abandoned the two major parties for alternatives such as the left-leaning Green Party and the far-right Reform UK led by Nigel Farage.

Farage is arguably Brexit’s biggest political winner. She campaigned for a divorce and then complained that she had been betrayed. His anti-immigration message shifted from focusing on Polish plumbers to focusing on asylum seekers on boats. His party consistently leads in opinion polls.

Cynicism and political violence increased

The economy has struggled over the past decade as businesses face new barriers to trade with the UK’s closest neighbours; But Brexit is not the only reason for low growth. The Covid-19 epidemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and the Iran war also played a role in this.

For all this, Hannah White, director of the Institute for Government think tank, said: “We haven’t had politicians who, when they came to power, were outspoken publicly about the fact that they couldn’t have increased taxes, increased debt and better public services all at the same time.”

“And so people were disappointed.”

Brexit has failed to ease the debate over immigration, which is growing increasingly fierce regardless of the numbers. Net migration rose to over 900,000 in 2023 following Brexit, falling to 171,000 last year.

Cynicism increased and trust in politicians decreased. In recent years, agitators have fueled anti-immigrant street violence following crimes committed by or falsely reported to have been committed by immigrants.

Gray said in the past Britain had a solid barrier “between the traditional dominant politics of speech and debate and what was seen across the borders: violence in the streets”. “I think that line has been eroded. And I think that largely started with Brexit.”

Regret? There were several in England

Polls show that Britain was somewhat “Bregret” about its preference a decade ago; A recent Ipsos poll reveals that 52% of people in the UK want to rejoin the EU, while 33% are against it.

Hundreds of people, many waving blue and yellow EU flags, took out a “rejoining” march in London on Saturday. This was a much smaller turnout than the mass protests on both sides at the height of the Brexit drama. Many people just want to move on.

But Brexit remains a minefield that politicians fear to tread. Even if Britain wanted to rejoin, it would be a long road back to a cautious EU.

Gray said Britain faced “the tide of a low-grade crisis” until politicians were willing to confront the legacy of Brexit.

He compared England to a person with a nagging illness that saps their energy.

“It’s something chronic, so maybe it’s untreatable,” he said. “But they don’t really like going to the doctor because they know it won’t be very pleasant.”