US strike on Iran would bring peril at every turn

Iran’s high leader Ayatullah Ali Khanei replied to Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender ,, but Trump said there were indications that the Iranians want to talk about. In addition, there were reports of an official Iranian aircraft landing where the negotiations with the President of the President Steve Witkoff took place before the Israeli attack.

If Trump makes a pause, this may be because the list of things that may go wrong is long and probably missing. Obviously: Despite Israel’s success in removing most of Iran’s air defenses, it is possible to shoot a B-2.

It is possible to be wrong, and even the largest traditional bomb in America cannot descend so deep.

Rafael Grossi, General Manager of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said when the Israeli operation started, “I was there, half a mile underground,” he said.

However, assuming that the operation itself is successful, many experts can sleep after the biggest dangers, just like in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are many lessons from the ugly period of American foreign policy, but the most vital may be that they are unknown unknowns that can return to bite.

If Iran was attacked by the US forces, he would probably return to the US bases spread to the Middle East and the number of beings gathered in the Gulf of Basra and the Mediterranean. All in the missile range, assuming that Iran has missiles and launchers after Iran’s systematic targeting.

Of course, this can initiate a climbing cycle: if the Americans are killed or even injured, Trump will be under the pressure of revenge.

“Fordow was going to put the US in the landscapes of Iran,” Fordow was a former US Ambassador to Israel, and Steven Simon, the veteran of the National Security Council. Foreign affairs This week.

“Iran would almost definitely make retaliation by killing American civilians. This would force the US to respond.

“Soon, the only target for Washington to shoot would be the leaders of the Iranian regime, and the United States would again enter into the regime change-this is a job that a small number of Americans wanted to be involved.”

The reaction can take other forms. Iran is capable of terrorism and reacted to the US-Israeli cyber attack by building a scary cyber corps that is not as hidden or as brave as China’s or Russia 15 years ago. And there were many short -range missiles to attack oil tankers, which has become very risky to the Gulf of Basra.

The last thing the White House wants is to publish these risks in public. The Democrats call for a role of congress, but they do not have the power to force it.

Senator Adam Schiff from California, one of Trump’s political rivals, said in CNN on Wednesday, göre We should be made to this decision, görevr Considering the rise potential, ”he said. “Bombing Fordow would be an aggressive activity.”

And like most aggressive activities, there are longer -term dangers beyond the attack and retaliation cycle. The message of the last five days may need to compete for a previous and more secret bomb, as interpreted by Iranian leaders or others with nuclear skills.

This was what North Korea did, and for years, despite American diplomacy and sabotage, it resulted in 60 or more nuclear weapons. It is a great enough arsenal to enable its enemies to think twice to execute the type of operation that South Korea and the US executed against Iran against Iran.

And history shows that nuclear programs can be bombed, but cannot be eliminated.

“Nuclear weapons can be stopped by force-Suriye program, Gary Samore, the Obama administration’s mass destruction coordinator of the Obama administration when the presence of the Fordow plant is opened to the public.

And in Iraq, after bombing the Osirak reactor in 1981, the Iraqis reacted by building a big, secret program in 1991 to prevent Saddam Hüseyin from receiving a bomb.

This was so embarrassing to the American intelligence organizations that after a decade, they wildly predicted their ability to do so again, contributed to the second failure and took the US to the Iraq War.

But Samore added: “I cannot imagine a case where air power alone is sufficient to end a program.”

This is an important issue for Trump. In the next few days, Israel should decide whether Iran’s attacks on Iran’s Natanz enrichment facility and the workshops with new centrifuges and whether the laboratories in which weapon research are performed are sufficient to reclaim the Iranian program.

In short, American pilots, American fighter planes and American weapons should decide whether there is a great risk of participation for the gain from destroying Fordow.

But at the same time, he does not want to be accused of missing the chances of putting the Iranians back for years. “If this war is over and this Fordow is not intact, it won’t take long to continue it again, Sam said Samore, a professor at the University of Brandeis.

Trump did not weigh these questions in the public, and it is always difficult to know how to evaluate the evidence.

The other day, a reporter said that his national intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard did not decide to produce bombs just a few months ago.

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Trump insisted that there was not much time left – but he did not show any evidence to contradict his own intelligence chief.

“Remember, we didn’t fight, Tr Trump said on Wednesday at the Oval Office. “We add a certain genius to everything, but we have never fought. Israel has done a very good job today.”

Then, he returned to the signature expression: “But we will see what will happen.”