Iran seeks to tighten control over strait of Hormuz alongside Khamenei funeral | Iran

Diplomatic and military wrangling over control of the Strait of Hormuz has intensified alongside dramatic scenes of mourning over the death of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei; some argue that Khamenei’s legacy ultimately depends on Tehran’s dominance of the waterway and thus the global economy.

As crowds turned in Tehran over the past 48 hours, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps appeared to have begun to fill the gaping and growing gap in its monopoly control over the strait.

Last week, many ships stuck in the strait for weeks began using a US-backed southern route near the Omani coast to escape, allowing Iran to control the less-used and more mined northern route.

French president Emmanuel Macron upped the ante on Thursday by announcing plans agreed with Britain to send a mine-clearing naval force to clear the southern route were going ahead; This plan was rejected by the Iranian foreign ministry as unwarranted and unjust intervention.

But on Saturday, at least eight ships returned after direct warnings from the IRGC. On Sunday, the ship flow dropped further. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center also said a ship in the Red Sea sent a distress signal after it was attacked by “unknown armed assailants” off the coast of the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah. UKMTO said authorities were investigating the incident.

Shipping watchdog Marine Traffic said its data showed there were 38 confirmed passages through the Strait of Hormuz on July 2, a 10% decrease on a daily basis. While Iranian flag crossings rapidly increased to 11 from two crossings the previous day, nine sanctioned crossings were also observed. “As the use of the Oman route has weakened, route selection has shifted towards Iran and Dark or Unknown corridors,” the organization said.

Oil prices have fallen by as much as 40 per cent from $125 (£93) per barrel to around $75 per barrel; This is a figure that reduces the inflationary impact on western economies and reflects the increasing presence of oil on world markets.

The memorandum of understanding signed digitally by the United States and Iran on June 17 required Tehran to make every effort to return traffic to pre-blockade levels.

Iran also agreed that it would not seek to impose tolls for 60 days. The memorandum of understanding turns out to be a loose guide to goals, as opposed to the strict, enforceable rules on which both parties rely.

Last week, Oman held talks with Iran, France and Britain over the future management of the strait. Oman has a plan to charge optional navigation fees for certain services such as security, docking, route guidance and environmental protection based on the Strait of Malacca. The plan appears to have broad support from the International Maritime Organization, and some European countries have said it could be difficult to reject the charges as long as the plan is similar to the plan implemented in the Strait of Malacca.

Indonesia’s recent suggestion that it could soon impose a toll on the Strait of Malacca sparked intense criticism and underlined the risk of Iran setting a precedent in the Strait of Hormuz. International maritime law allows tolls to be collected on canals built as commercial infrastructure on the territory of a single state, such as the Panama and Suez canals. Natural straits are excluded from this provision.

Donald Trump has acknowledged that talks between the US and Iran will not resume until Khamenei’s funeral is over, but the clock is ticking towards the 60-day period during which the ceasefire must be renewed by mutual consent. Both sides are using the ceasefire to strengthen their military positions, contrary to the US’s agreed commitment to withdraw its forces from the immediate area. The US appears to be building up its forces in Jordan.

An Iranian military spokesman said: “We have repeatedly announced that we used the opportunity of the ceasefire to improve our combat capabilities and that we did not waste or be negligent even a single moment.”

Separately, at his funeral in Tehran, Iran sent a subtle but unmistakable message, using passages from the Quran, to Gulf delegations arriving to pay their respects to the former religious leader.

When the Saudi delegation came forward to pay their respects, a passage was read describing the Battle of Badr, fought in 624 in what is now Saudi Arabia, in which one side fought in the way of God and the other side as infidels. The passage added: “Allah supports with victory whomever He wills,” implying that there would be consequences if the Saudis chose to support U.S. attacks on Iran.

An amnesty message was given to Qatar. Tehran had chosen a verse from the Surah al-Fath: “So that Allah may forgive you your past and future sins, and complete His favor upon you, and guide you to the right path…”

The message was that Doha must realize its “sin” of supporting western powers.

Türkiye’s reluctance to pay any economic cost for supporting Iran has been delicately rebuked. The Turkish delegation was presented with the following statements in the 95th verse of Surah Nisa: “Allah has favored the mujahids over those who remained behind with a great reward.”

The Lebanese Hezbollah movement was matched with lavish praise. In Surah al-Maidah, the fifth chapter of the Holy Quran, a verse containing the phrase “the party of Allah”, from which Hezbollah takes its name, was read: “Whoever takes Allah, His messenger and those who believe as friends, surely the party of Allah will prevail.”

The United Arab Emirates did not send a condolence delegation.