Andhra Pradesh and the next El Niño challenge

Long before El Niño formed over the Pacific Ocean, Andhra Pradesh had tasted the pain of what was to come. In May, the State experienced sweltering heat, endless hot nights and intense heat waves. Cities and towns wore a deserted look as daytime temperatures remained above 44°C for nine consecutive days and the highest temperature of the season was 48.3°C.

The record-breaking temperatures not only brought back unpleasant memories of previous El Niño events in the state, but also heralded a troubling weather pattern marked by scant rainfall and more heat waves. In fact, on July 12, 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued heatwave warnings for Amaravati, State.

This is the third time in 10 years that the state’s preparedness has been put to the test, with the first two being in 2015 and 2023. In 2015, which witnessed a strong El Niño event, heat waves killed at least 2,300 people in the country; Andhra Pradesh alone accounted for 1,369 deaths, forcing the government to set up the Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority (APSDMA).

When sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise above 2°C, meteorologists declare it a “very strong” El Niño event, weather experts say. According to IMD experts, between 1951 and 2025, this threshold was exceeded four times (1972, 1982, 2015 and 2023).

Meteorologists believe there is a high chance of another strong El Niño event this year.

A testing monsoon

An overall below normal monsoon is expected for Andhra Pradesh; Isolated areas show the possibility of normal or above normal rainfall, indicating the possibility of low pressure systems forming in the Bay of Bengal. But this is only a possibility.

The state receives most of its rainfall during the Southwest monsoon, especially in August and September, when El Niño is expected to strengthen. While the state received near-normal rainfall in June as predicted, July started off a little dry.

According to the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, the state recorded 86.2 mm of rainfall between June 1 and July 11, against the normal 149.1 mm, recording a decrease of 42.2%. Apart from two districts reporting normal rainfall, 26 out of 28 districts reported either deficient or grossly inadequate rainfall, presenting a bleak picture.

The state’s long-term average annual rainfall is 858 mm, but this year’s total is projected to be 690 mm; This means a deviation of about 20%; this is again twice the deviations recorded in the State during recent El Niño years. According to APSDMA, negative deviations in recent El Niño years ranged from 4% to 11%.

alleviate the impact

The direct impact of low rainfall is on the farming community and agricultural activities. While 54 mandals have been declared drought-affected in 2023, at least 6.96 lakh farmers have suffered losses in 103 of the 688 mandals in the state.

The government started preparations. At a review meeting, Andhra Pradesh Home and Disaster Management Minister V. Anitha emphasized that weather information should be disseminated to the village level to minimize crop losses. But there is a challenge: the agriculture department issues warnings and advisories to farmers according to agro-climatic zones. Scholars have noted the arbitrary grouping of regions with different characteristics. This can lead to a mismatch between the advice given and the ground realities of farmers. It is not possible for the government to achieve its goal without solving structural problems.

The agriculture department has started warning farmers to switch to drought-tolerant crops in rain-fed regions of Rayalaseema to weather the crisis. But questions have also been raised about farmers’ willingness to switch to these crops.

The state appears to have learned the lesson from 2015 by significantly reducing heatstroke deaths. The number of deaths recorded in 2023 has dropped drastically to three. But ensuring weather warnings reach farmers in a timely manner remains a weak link.

It remains to be seen whether the government’s preparedness will remain only on paper or will help mitigate the impact of the global event.