Labor and Coalition hit record lows as voters pivot to One Nation
The Coalition and Labor recorded their lowest support in recent times in NSW. Nearly half of the state’s voters told pollsters they would abandon major parties in next year’s election.
The latest Resolve Political Monitor shows that support for the two major parties has fallen to its lowest level since at least November 2021.
The poll shows support for the Coalition led by Kellie Sloane has weakened to just 23 per cent, down three points on the previous result. At the same time, Chris Minns’s Labor government fell three points to 29 per cent, its worst result since the 2023 election.
The main beneficiary of the project was Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. Although recent federal polls show the anti-immigrant far-right party is in decline following its recent rise, 25 per cent of 1,100 respondents in NSW said they would vote for the party if an election were held today.
The rapid shift away from the two major parties, with just eight months until the next state election, makes for sobering reading for both parties.
While 48 percent of voters overall said they would vote for a party that is not in the majority, the Greens rose 1 point to 11 percent and 12 percent nominated independents or other parties.
The polling took place in mid-June and mid-July, on either side of the Labor government’s low-key pre-election budget and the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption’s announcement of an investigation into an alleged corruption grant scheme involving Liberal Party apparatchiks.
The latter sparked a series of negative headlines about the Coalition and led to the resignation of its leader in the NSW upper house, Damien Tudehope, who was called as a witness to the inquiry and had close ties to some Liberal Party figures in the ICAC’s favor. However, Tudehope was not accused of any wrongdoing.
At the same time, Chris Minns’ rating as preferred prime minister fell two points, from 38 per cent to 36 per cent, but he maintained his lead over the opposition leader – Sloane’s rating fell from 18 per cent to 16 per cent.
Resolve pollster Jim Reed said the flurry of news about the ICAC investigation could damage both major parties.
“There have been a lot of political scandals in the last few weeks and they tend to lump all politicians together, which is why we’re seeing both major parties fall,” he said.
“The difference now is that there is a third force in One Nation, and that force is really taking advantage of that because they are anti-institutional, anti-elite. They are seen by some as the alternative and the solution.”
The survey also reflected public debate over shark numbers after a swimmer was mauled by a great white shark at Coogee Beach.
The attack prompted Prime Minister Chris Minns to announce extra funding for year-round shark-detecting drones as part of an enhanced protection program for beachgoers; but he did not rule out the potential for bull shark culling if the census shows waterways are being “overrun” by the animals.
In July, Resolve Monitor polled voters about their attitudes toward shark mitigation measures. Aerial drone surveillance was by far the most popular: 62 percent of respondents believed drones were adequate; 47 percent preferred shark nets; 40 percent supported helicopter detection; and only 20 percent thought the cull was acceptable.
In the state poll, One Nation’s rising primary vote diverged from recent federal polls that showed the party’s votes falling after a rapid rise. The 25 percent support in June and July represents a three-point increase from the previous poll in April and May.
Since the beginning of the year, both major parties have seen a dramatic decline in primary votes.
In January, the NSW Labor Party recorded a primary vote of 37 per cent; this figure has been largely stable since mid-2025, but the party’s vote has fallen since then. The latest Resolve figure shows the Minns government’s ratings have fallen below 30 per cent for the second time this year; He recorded the same result in March.
The Liberals fared equally poorly, dropping five points from 28 per cent of the vote in November’s primary before Kellie Sloane was elected to replace Mark Speakman.
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