Kalshi launches Midterms Hub with live election odds and poll data

SPECIAL: As the race for control of Congress heats up, prediction markets are emerging as an increasingly effective complement to traditional voting, offering real-time election predictions that change as news breaks and campaigns evolve.

The launch reflects a broader shift in how elections are monitored. Unlike traditional polls, which capture voter sentiment at a single moment in time, prediction markets are constantly updated as investors react to debates, fundraising, endorsements and breaking news, giving campaigns and political observers a real-time read on how the races are evolving.

Kalshi launched the new Midterms Center on Tuesday, bringing together live market odds, poll averages, fundraising data, past election results and political news into a single dashboard tracking the House, Senate and gubernatorial races. Kalshi said he plans to expand the platform beyond the 2026 midterm elections to make it a permanent destination for covering U.S. political races.

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Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour said ahead of the launch: “Prediction markets don’t care about spin or partisanship.” “They break down polarization and show you what the wisdom of the crowd actually believes, backed by real money, not rhetoric.”

The company argues that it gives users a more dynamic view of the campaign than just traditional voting.

“You can see things happening in real time,” a Kalshi spokesperson told Fox News Digital, arguing that prediction markets can pick up momentum shifts that periodic polls might miss.

Kalshi says the platform has gone beyond a trading venue, with around 75% of visitors using it to watch election picks rather than trade. A spokesman said the trend suggested many users viewed the markets as a source of information, even if they never bet.

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Kalshi is a federally regulated US-based prediction market exchange that allows users to trade on the outcomes of political, economic and other real-world events. (Laura Brett/Getty Images)

As election markets grow in popularity, debates have raged over whether traders with non-public political information could gain an advantage. In the United States, where insider trading and market manipulation are illegal, Kalshi said it is federally regulated and monitors its markets for suspicious activity.

The hub allows users to track races by competitiveness, projected party shifts and transaction volume while viewing polling averages, Federal Election Commission fundraising reports and past voting results. Users can also see how election odds change over time following debates, fundraising reports, and other important campaign developments.

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Midterm elections are heating up as voters return to the polls in 2026. (Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images)

Beyond voters and political observers, Kalshi says campaigns can use the hub to gauge whether debates, endorsements, fundraisers or breaking news are changing expectations in real time, rather than waiting days for new votes.

Kalshi says his markets’ preferred candidates have won nearly 90% of races since 2024, even three months before Election Day.