Africa faces massive economic hit from ‘super’ El Nino
The African Development Bank’s top climate expert warns that an impending “super” El Niño will deal a total hit of $10 to $20 billion to affected African countries and trigger mass exodus from hard-hit regions.
Forecasters warn that El Nino weather, which often causes severe droughts, floods and storms in Africa, could turn into one of the strongest weather conditions ever seen if current warming trends in the Pacific Ocean continue.
In addition to the threat to food and water security, government finances and banking sectors could also suffer if disasters damage infrastructure and leave cash-strapped countries struggling to repay associated loans.
“This event alone will reduce the GDP of heavily affected countries by an average of 1 per cent to 2 per cent, translating to around US$10 billion ($A14 billion) to US$20 billion ($A29 billion) across the continent,” Anthony Nyong, AfDB’s director for climate change and green growth, said in an interview with Reuters. he said.
The AfDB’s latest forecasts in May predicted that Africa as a whole would see economic growth of 4.2 percent this year; Assuming that the US-Israeli war against Iran eases, this figure was predicted to increase to 4.4 percent in 2027.
But this was before predictions of the “super” or “Godzilla” El Nino were made.
Nyong’s estimate of a possible $10 billion to $20 billion hit is the first El Niño-related estimate given by a major multilateral development bank.
He did not provide a country-by-country breakdown of the forecast but cautioned that it was unlikely to be a one-off.
While the drought conditions that much of the Sahel region has suffered from in recent years may persist, Mozambique’s experience following Cyclone Idai in 2019 shows that recovery from major storms can take years.
Governments were also falling into what Nyong described as the “climate finance trap,” where they lack the resources to respond to crises and are forced to raid health, education or infrastructure budgets to cover the costs.
The 2023-2024 El Niño event caused severe drought in Southern Africa and heavy rains and floods in East Africa. These conditions led to widespread crop failures, rising food prices, and record sea level rises along the continent’s coastlines.
The AfDB estimates that farmers in Africa face income losses of around $330 million in 2026, while fishing industries could also be hit hard by rising sea temperatures and storms.
“When these shocks occur, countries take two steps back,” Nyong said. “We do not want our countries to fall into poverty.”
The AfDB’s response to El Niño will escalate with a bank-wide “seminar” in September, with senior staff assessing the potential impact on both planned and existing investments.
Nyong said she was ready to restructure projects to help countries manage the effects of El Niño and would work with them to leverage additional multilateral support such as the Green Climate Fund, the world’s largest climate fund.
He added that other possible assistance could come from the Adaptation Fund, Climate Investment Funds and newer loss-damage financing mechanisms.
