Jordan faces a dilemma in its growing role in the U.S.-Iran war

AMMAN, Jordan — When Iranian ballistic missiles struck Jordan repeatedly last week, killing three American soldiers and wounding dozens more, it shone a light on the U.S. military presence that the desert kingdom’s government has long tried to downplay.

Jordan has been a military and counterterrorism partner of the United States for decades and has opened its territory to the United States and other Western troops in its engagements across the region over the years. But faced with a population that is overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian and suspicious of all-out U.S. support for Israel, the government has kept these relations low profile.

But now Jordan’s growing role in the US war with Iran, and the intense Iranian retaliation that role invites, is encouraging uncomfortable conversations on the part of the government.

“Jordanians are stuck in a dilemma: They are being dragged into a war they don’t want, but ironically the cause of that war is the ally they bargained with to protect them in the first place,” said Sean Yom, a Temple University political science professor and Jordan expert who wrote the book “Jordan: Politics in the Accidental Crucible.”

“They ask how sensible it is to negotiate this geopolitical bargain with a patron like the United States, when one of the sources of our instability is the relationship that is supposed to guarantee our security.”

Jordan has been targeted nine times since the ceasefire broke down on July 8 and the United States has launched an almost daily wave of attacks on Iran, with ballistic missiles and drones hitting U.S. assets and facilities and endangering nearly 4,000 troops at some Jordanian military bases across the country.

One of these salvos hit a settlement in the Jordanian base of Muwaffaq Al-Salti in the east of the country on July 17, killing three US soldiers and wounding at least four others. King Faisal Air Base, Prince Hassan Air Base and the airport in Aqaba were also attacked.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that the attacks not only killed and injured dozens of US military personnel, but also damaged unmanned aerial vehicles, helicopters, F-15 staging hangars, radar sites, missile defense systems and ammunition depots.

Even more worrying for Jordan was that the IRGC issued statements thanking “honorable people” in Jordan for providing “sincere cooperation and precise information”, which he said enabled it to target and kill “dozens of American terrorist forces”.

One of the statements said, “Seize every opportunity to dismantle American institutions and expel the American occupation army from Jordan.”

As news of the attack spread, the Jordanian government, normally wary of deploying foreign troops to the country, began damage control.

Officials and lawmakers quickly condemned Tehran for violating the country’s sovereignty, while the foreign ministry summoned Iran’s chargé d’affaires in Amman, Jordan’s capital, and demanded that Iran stop attacks on the kingdom. Meanwhile, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi rejected Iran’s claim that the United States has bases in the country.

“There are no American bases in Jordan. We have American troops that are in Jordan as part of our long-standing military cooperation,” he said at the Aspen Security Forum earlier this month. Safadi was referring to the 2021 defense agreement that allows US forces unrestricted access to 12 facilities in Jordan, including five air bases; The agreement was approved by royal decree and bypassed parliament.

“Their existence is subject to a defense agreement that fully respects our sovereignty,” he said.

However, the government’s statements did little to alleviate concerns. While many Jordanians have little love for Iran, more than 300 politicians, academics, lawyers, retired military officers and tribal leaders signed an open letter last week calling on the government to withdraw from the defense agreement and keep Jordanian facilities neutral. This is a bold move in a country where opposition to government policies (especially on security issues) can be a red line.

“Jordan is not a party to this war. Its people should not bear the consequences or pay the price for policies that do not serve the supreme interests of the country,” the letter said.

“We call on us to avoid the dangers of positioning ourselves under the American umbrella, which requires adopting a policy of genuine neutrality based on avoiding any military or logistical intervention that would serve any side of the conflict.”

Another sign of public anger came Sunday: When a member of the House of Parliament urged Congress to express its condolences for the killing of US soldiers, others silenced him by saying the legislature was not a funeral parlor to console “criminals” and “child murderers”, citing US support for Israel in Gaza.

Jordan is grappling with questions similar to those faced by its Gulf neighbors who rely on the U.S. security umbrella that has left their countries exposed to Iranian attack. But while these countries’ oil wealth gives them an advantage to push back against the US presence, Jordan, a resource-poor country with a population of approximately 11 million, cannot do this.

Meanwhile, the conflict has further exacerbated Jordan’s economic woes. Tourism, which accounts for almost 15 percent of the country’s GDP according to official figures and is just starting to recover after the 2023 Gaza war, has been in decline since the start of military operations against Iran. One month after the war, gas prices rose by 11%; This was a major blow to Jordan’s perpetually anemic economy.

All this made the kingdom even more dependent on US generosity. Washington gives Amman about $1.45 billion a year; This includes nearly $800 million going directly to government coffers for budget support. Experts say it will be difficult to replace that level of support from Europe or elsewhere.

At the same time, Jordan has become a vital nerve center for US forces. The US military has spent hundreds of millions of dollars since 2019 to improve Muwaffaq Al-Salti and other facilities, paving aircraft aprons, taxiways, ammunition depots and other infrastructure, according to US federal contracting documents.

Satellite images of these bases from 2019 show significant construction and the increased presence of US assets, including F-16s, F-18s, unmanned aerial vehicles and helicopters.

As U.S. troops deployed to the Gulf states became vulnerable to Iranian bombardments, Pentagon planners moved assets further away from Iran, particularly Jordan.

In recent days, despite a lull in operations against Iran, flight tracking sites have shown brisk US military traffic, with logistics aircraft including massive C-17 Globemaster and KC-35 refueling tankers making repeated trips between Jordan and US military hubs in Europe.