Prediction markets have a new favorite for the next Fed Chair — Christopher Waller

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s next president is the first time the estimation market is likely to pass over 50% in Kalshi.

Waller’s probability increased from approximately 16% on Wednesday Bloomberg News, By referring to people who are familiar with the issue, President Donald Trump’s advisors love the opening of the monetary policy according to estimates rather than existing data. He also reported that Waller met the Trump team about the Fed lead role, but the president did not meet him.

Waller’s chances in Kalshi exceeded the previous Fed Fed official Kevin Warsh and the current National Economic Council Manager Kevin Hassett, and their rates are 20% and 35%, respectively.

Trump nominated the Waller in 2020. In the last July Fed decision, Waller informed the decision of the Fed’s decision with Governor Michelle Bowman. Waller said the Fed’s waiting and the visual approach was “over -cautious”.

“Waller is an ideal choice for investors, considering the last Dovish stance and the reliability of political independence.” He said.

Hassett and Warsh defended lower interest rates. The current president Jerome Powell, which ended in May 2026, was often the target of Trump’s criticism of raising rates.

Another popular prediction platform, Polymarket, Waller is the front runner of the chance rising to 35%. Hassett has a chance of 22%, while Warsh said that 11% of the participants will not announce any announcement until December.

At the beginning of this week, Trump told CNBC that he had four candidates for the best slot, but he shook his head to both Warsh and Hassett.

“Very good, Tr Trump said, referring to Warsh. “Sometimes they are all very good, they do not do it very well until you put it there and then… I think a very good man. Kevin and Kevin, both Kevins are very good.”

These comments immediately led to a hurry of activity in Kalshi, which sent Hassett and Warsh higher rates.