Israel-Iran conflict and the Fed drove the stock market this week

In general, it was a tense and dynamic week for the world. In the last four sessions in Wall Street, the market action was something other than that. For the week, S&P 500 0.15%increased, technology heavily NASDAQ increased by 0.21%, and the Dow Jones industrial average was fundamentally flat and increased only 0.02%. However, under the surface, there were many news to digest investors. A closer look at the largest market themes during the holiday shortened transaction week. 1. Geopolitics: The main news story was intensely fighting between Israel and Iran - and is still so. The biggest question in everyone's mind is whether the US will be involved. Reports on Friday show that nothing is authorized when President Donald Trump actively reviews the options to attack Iran. The White House told Trump that he would decide for "next two weeks". As a result of the Israeli-Iranian conflict, investors have taken an extra eye to the movement of risk assets such as oil, as well as safe assets such as gold and dollar. Gold prices, Israel's first attack on the Iranian nuclear infrastructure of the first Friday after the first headlines this week withdrew. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index was strengthened this week, but still remains near the multi -year low. Oil rose again during the week, and the international comparison Brent Crude oil climbed about 4%. For those who want to measure the market that the market will be in Iran. The commodity now serves as a proxy for the intensification of the conflict and the possibility of America's direct struggle. 2. Fed Updates: The other major theme of the week, the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision and the revised economic projections on Wednesday, until the afternoon focused on the health of the US economy. Ultimately, the FED did not change the comparison loan rate on Wednesday after a two -day policy meeting. The decision followed the inanimate updates about the situation of the consumer and housing market with lower inflation readings than expected a week ago. As we have summarized at the beginning of this week, at a difficult point to comply with the Fed request and low unemployment. Game status requires nuance. On the one hand, the evidence that supports ratio cuts, that is, the consumer is largely and impressively resistant, even if some cracks in the consumer and the Fed's own updated appearance for lower real GDP growth and higher unemployment this year. On the other hand, the FED is now waiting for higher inflation than it is in March this year, which will support the need for higher interest rates. Considering the uncertainty about these duel dynamics and tariff effects, it makes sense to keep the Central Bank's interest rates fixed. Although the Fed definitely does not want to wait for a long time and make the same mistake that we see from the Covid-19 pande, we must admit that the reasons for a potential recoil in inflation are different this time. Tariffs will probably increase the prices, but this may be a one -time increase, unlike the continuous inflation, which we see that it comes out of the pandemic caused by large supply chain cuts and changes in consumer behavior. As a result, we believe that the visible prejudice will be more concerned about the labor market and general economic growth - and therefore, it makes sense later this year. Indeed, the Fed's updated projections are still in 2025 with a pencil pencil with a pencil, as in March despite the above mentioned revisions in the view of inflation and growth. The Fed Governor Christopher Waller argued on Friday, arguing that deductions should start in early July, and the risk of inflation revealed by tariffs is not important and flexibility in the labor market should be a higher priority. The Waller's argument is that now, now moving is better than jumping into unemployment. Considering the extremely variable nature of geopolitics, our biggest focus in the club is to be agile. Of course, it is important to think about ratio decisions, but it is only a small part of the investment puzzle to navigate every day. Therefore, we continue to focus more on individual company foundations and industry tendencies rather than higher level dynamics that are important to shape our world view. Cyber security stocks are an example we emphasize this week. Another example is that this week will be the news we receive from the meta platforms and Amazon about artificial intelligence efforts. We think that the effects of AI on cost structures, income opportunities and productivity gains should be much heavier than whether the FED should be cut in July or September in the minds of long -term investors. (Jim Cramer's philanthropist trust feature, Amzn. Look here for the full list of stocks.) By subscribing to Jim Crammer and CNBC Investment Club, you will receive a trade warning before Jim made a trade. Jim is waiting for 45 minutes after sending a trade warning before buying or selling a share in the portfolio of charitable confidence. If Jim talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he's waiting for 72 hours after trading warning before trading. The above investment club information is subject to our conditions and conditions and our Privacy Policy with the waiver. There is no confidence or duty or not, as you receive any information provided in connection with the Investment Club. A specific result or profit is not guaranteed.