“Wherever we go, people treat energy usability as given,” Rui Ma written Open X After returning from the AI centers of China recently.
For American AI researchers, this is almost unthinkable. In the USA AI demand increases Goldman Sachs collides with a fragile power grille, which is an extreme type of bottleneck warns He could seriously drown the growth of the industry.
In China, MA continued and was accepted as a “solved problem ..
MA is a famous expert in Chinese technology and the founder of the media company Tech Buzz ChinaHe set off his team to look at the country’s artificial intelligence progress first. He told me Luck Although he was not an energy expert, he attended the meeting enough and spoke from the inside to come with a result that the Silicon Valley should send a tremor to the backbone: creating enough power for data centers in China is no longer ready to discuss.
“This is a definite contrast with the US, which is more and more attached to the discussions on data center power consumption and grilled limitations of AI growth, X.
Bets are difficult to exaggerate. The Data Center building is the basis for AI progress and expenditures on new centers. Now This is displaced by consumer expenditures in terms of impact on the US GDP, because consumer expenditures are usually two-thirds of the pie. Mckinsey Projects that companies will need worldwide between 2025 and 2030 investment The new data center capacity of $ 6.7 trillion to keep up with AI’s difficulty.
One Last research noteStifel Nicolaus warned about a correction approaching the S&P 500, because while predicting one -time accumulation of the infrastructure of Capex explosion, consumer expenditures are clearly decreasing.
However, one Deloitte Industrial survey is stress in the power network. Power Networks of Cities very weak Some companies only Building its own power plants Instead of relying on existing grills. People are increasingly disappointed Increased energy bills In Ohio, a typical household bill has increased at least 15 dollars from this summer data centers-Energy companies are preparing to change the demand for an increase.
Goldman Sachs frames The crisis is simply: “AI’s demand for unsatisfied power creates a critical bottleneck by leaving behind the decay cycles of the grill.”
Meanwhile, David Fishman, a Chinese electrical expert who has spent years to follow the energy development, Luck Electric in China is not even a question. On average, China adds more electricity demands than Germany’s annual consumption each year. All rural provinces are covered in the roof sun and one state is completely matching the electric supply of India.
“US policy makers must hope that China will remain an opponent, not aggressive, Fi said Fishman. “Because they cannot compete effectively on the energy infrastructure front.”
Fishman explained that China’s silent electric domination is the result of decades of intentional over construction and investment to every layer of the energy sector from production to transmission, new generation nuclear.
Fishman said that the country’s reserve margin has never fallen below 80-100% throughout the country, that is, at least twice the capacity it needs. Instead of seeing artificial intelligence data centers as a threat to network stability, the authorized has a lot of space to “soak excessive supply”.
Fishman said that this pillow level cannot be considered in the United States, which is typically working with a 15% reserve margin of regional grids, and sometimes less, especially during excessive air. In places like California or Texas, authorities are usually warning About the Red Flag conditions When foreseen to force the request system. This leaves very little space to increase the fast load.
The gap in preparation is sharp: the US is already political and economic. fights China is working on the abundance position on whether the grid can continue.
Deva Even if the AI demand in China is growing very quickly, Fishman said that the country could touch empty coal plants to close the gap while building more sustainable resources. “Not preferred,” he confessed, “but can be done.”
On the contrary, the USA to mix up Authorized, usually faced with years of delays, local opposition and fragmented market rules, he said.
Supporting hardware advantage is a difference in my governance. Energy planning in China said it was coordinated with long -term technocratic policy defining the rules of the market before investments are made. This model enables the construction of the infrastructure to be realized with the expectation of demand, not in response to this.
“Grand prepares to shoot Slams, Fish said Fishman. “The United States can at best enter the base.”
In the USA, large -scale infrastructure projects are largely dependent on special investment, but most investors expect a return within three to five years: very short for power projects that can last ten years of power projects.
While the energy projects are struggling for financing, the Silicon Valley is a billions of huns to reiterate the software as a service ”and said,“ Capital is really prejudiced towards short -term returns. ”
In China, on the contrary, the state directs money to strategic sectors before demand, will not accept every project, but to ensure that the capacity is available when needed. He argued that the US political and economic system was not established to create the future of the future without risking long -term bets without public financing.
Cultural attitudes strengthen this approach. In China, renewable energy sources are framed as the cornerstone of the economy, because they are economically and strategically logical, not because they carry moral weights. The use of coal, as there will be some of the US circles, not as a malicious sign – it is only seen as outdated. Fishman claimed that this pragmatic frame allowed policy makers to focus on productivity and consequences rather than political wars.
Package service for Fishman is blind. Without a dramatic change of how the US builds and finances its energy infrastructure, China’s leadership will only expand.
“The talent gap will only continue to be more prominent and will grow in the coming years,” he said.
This story took place at the beginning Fortune.com
