Five things at stake in Trump and Putin’s high-level talks
Russian President Vladimir Putin waved with US President Donald Trump during a meeting at the G20 summit in Osaka in Japan on June 28, 2019.
Mikhail Klimentyev | Kremlin | Sputnik | Reuters
When Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to meet with US President Donald Trump in Alaska on Friday for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, he will be one of the highest profile peaks of the year and is in danger.
Experienced statesman Putin aims to achieve as much concessions and benefits as possible in exchange for a ceasefire released by Trump for Russia.
Moscow’s close followers say that Russia has not yet wanted to end the war, but considering its advantageous position in the battlefield in Ukraine, where their powers occupy the land areas in the south and east.
Trump reduced expectations for the summit and described them as a listening exercise before potential further forward talks. Nevertheless, if Putin did not accept a ceasefire, he threatened “very violent results”. He resisted a warning that Trump previously proposed and still with more sanctions.
Ukraine and its European allies, who were not invited to the summit, warned Trump that Putin had bluff to want peace this week. Kyiv even said that although Moscow did not interpret this claim, Russia was preparing for new attacks.
Nevertheless, for stakeholders in the Ukrainian War, there may be a basin memory and a catalyst for geopolitical changes.
CNBC takes a look at the five main factors that are in danger in Friday interviews:
Truce
Trump’s central purpose is to direct Putin to the ceasefire, but what it can take, what promises can be made, and what “red lines” may need to pass – especially regional concessions and security guarantees – will be important to reach an agreement.
On Wednesday, “Ending the Russian-Ukraine War continues to be one of President Trump’s signature foreign policy targets, and Anchorage talks about Putin on Friday, the President of Mena Studies at RBC Capital Markets, said,” Increased expectations of a great diplomatic breakthrough.
“The contract points of the contract are greatly similar to those who have previously floated; in exchange for stopping the military attack, Russia apparently tries to protect the entire Eastern Donbas region of Crimea and Ukraine, and gives an end to Kiiv’s NATO ambitions.”
Regional Integrity of Ukraine
Ukraine and Europe have violently returned to the “maximalist” regional privileges that Russia could call to have a cease -fire agreement.
Trump, while emptying the thorny issue last week, talking about Ukraine’s potential “change land”, at the same time, he also promised to reclaim as much regions as possible.
On Wednesday, Ukraine and European leaders called Trump not to make any requests for land peace following Putin following an emergency virtual summit.
In this view, the ruins of the destroyed buildings are seen on July 24, 2025 in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblass, Chasiv Yar in Dawn in Ukraine.
Libkos | Getty Images News | Getty Images
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the regional integrity of Ukraine was in the constitution. Any amendment to this should be approved by a referendum that must be authorized by the Ukrainian Parliament and will make the process potentially full.
There is another option: Ukraine accepts actual Russian control of four regions, which are widely covered by a jure (legal and official) recognition. But again, how a “fair and permanent” peace can be maintained in Ukraine and who will make a police will probably be a debate bone.
Europe’s security
Regional leaders say that the fate of the regional integrity of Ukraine affects not only Ukraine, but the rest of Europe. They claim that giving Putin a slice from the neighbor’s territory effectively redraws the European borders.
Ukraine argues that, although it is seen as a member of the European Union (sales as NATO) and as a ambition), and that both Kiev and the EU will be given a slice from the Ukrainian region and use the region as a corruption of the future wholesale Ukrainian invasion. This may mean that there is a war on the border of Europe.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President Right and European Commission President Ursula von Der Luyen, on Tuesday, May 9, 2023, leaving a press conference in Ukraine, Kiev.
Andrew Kravchenko | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The EU leaders wanted to participate in any ceasefire agreement and offered to check to protect peace. Russia rejected this idea, and Euroskeptic Trump’s concerns may not be at the forefront of his mind on Friday.
On Wednesday, “Europeans can catch them after the US-Russia summit, where Europeans are trying to frame them as an unbearable prerequisites for an agreement with Russia (a ceasefire, a monitoring, monitoring mission,” Ironclad “security guarantees).” He said.
“Whatever the outcome, Trump may dare to offer Europeans more than the necessary military capabilities and financing. This will create difficult exchanges in transatlantic relationships.” He said.
Russian economy
Although Putin seems to be entering a meeting from a power position rather than weakness, he can search for Russia’s economy from the war damaged in a controversial way, which can see slow growth, labor and widespread inflation. Even Putin described it as “worrying”.
″[Putin] It starts from a relatively strong position on the battlefield. “Richard Portes, President of the London Business School, Faculty of Economics, told CNBC.
“On the other hand, economically, starting from a weak position. The Russian economy is not very good. Since oil revenues fall too much, oil and gas are conducting an important financial deficit. [are down] Because of the oil price. And … This is a weak economy,
Geopolitical effect
After three and a half years of war, there is definitely a desire to end the war in Ukraine. According to estimates, millions of Ukrainians were displaced. Global economy and supply chains were also raised and redefined as a result of the conflict.
File Photo: US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during the family photo session at the Apec Summit in Vietnam on 11 November 2017.
Jorge Silva | Reuters
In the meantime, Russia has reasoned in a reasonable way, and has oil buyers who finance the war machine by refusing to isolate China and India’s allies. Therefore, one of the key questions on Friday is willing to play ball when it comes to the end of the war and to what extent does it need?
“From Putin’s point of view, the task is quite pros: just sitting and waiting for the desired result.
Putin’s position on the eve of the meeting seems more advantageous, Bunov said: “Before any ceasefire, Trump is taking a greater risk than Putin, accepting to hold a one -to -one meeting with Putin.”
“In diplomacy, the attacker has nothing to lose. By proposing to lower the temperature without being exposed to military defeat, the same aggressive begins to look like a peaceful.”
