IMF chief warns of broader risks from US strikes on Iran, after oil hits five-month high – business live | Business
Introduction: In the middle of the Iranian crisis, oil returns from the highest level of five months
Good morning and welcome the business world to our financial markets and our world economy.
The oil price has reached its highest level since January after bombing the US’s nuclear facilities at the weekend.
Traders are in a largely risky mood because they weighed the chance to climb further in the Middle East and consider possible Iran retaliation. However, there is no panic in the markets.
When the new trading week started, there was an early leap in oil price; The raw prices rose over 4%and a barrel Brent Crude oil pushed the highest level of five months to $ 81.40.
But… Traders in London withdrawn even before they reach their tables, and now increased by 1.7% than $ 78.32 per barrel.
Yesterday, the Iranian Parliament voted to close the Hormuz Strait, but one -fifth of the world oil moved. If it were, it may create a supply shock that increases the energy price, nourishes inflation and damages growth.
In response, Marco RubioThe US Secretary of State warned that Iran’s throat closure would be “economic suicide, and called on China to shake Tehran at this point.
Rubio told Fox News:
“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them, because they are largely relying on the Hormuz Strait for oil.”
Holger Schmieding, chief economist Berenberg BankHormuz says that the Strait is “basic economic risk to watch .. However, he argues that a long -lasting disruption in the energy flows in the Gulf Region argues that it is not “possible, because it argues that trying to shorten energy exports will be a high -risk strategy for Tehran.
Schmieding He told customers this morning:
For more than twenty years, the Iranian regime has tried to destabilize various parts of the Middle East. On its own, a great mishap should be considered positive for Iran’s prominent attempt to obtain nuclear weapons.
In the short term, the United States raises geopolitical risks in the region against the three Iranian nuclear facilities to a new level. The markets will probably go to the “risk closed” mode while waiting for Iran’s reaction. However, in the long run, a seriously weakened Iranian regime can become an important positive for the region.
Agenda
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Today: The UK government will publish its industrial strategy
-
09:00 BST: EURO ZONE FOR June Flash PMI Production and Services Survey
-
09:30 BST: UK Flash PMI Production Survey and Services for June
-
14:00 BST: Christine Lagarde witnesses the European Parliament in Brussels, Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee
-
14:45 BST: US Flash PMI Production Survey and Services for June
KEY EVENTS
Analysts RBC Capital city Markets Since Iran weighs its reaction, let’s assume that there is a “open and existing risk of energy attacks in the Middle East.
This threat may come from Iran -backed militias operating near the Basra energy facilities in Iraq.
In a note this morning, RBC Before you know the reaction of Iran, days or weeks can take:
First of all, at this stage, we will warn the knee tremor against the hot perspective of “worst behind us”. President Trump may have successfully realized a “increasing increase” movement, but at this point, a wider expansion still cannot be ignored.
In these nine -day Middle East military conflict, we can be on the matrix of Rumsfeld “unknown unknowns”.
The stock exchanges in the Asia-Pacific region are confused today, because investors are in the Middle East.
Japan Nikkei 225 The index decreased by 0.17%, while Australia S&P/ASX 200 The index lost 0.35%.
The mood in China is brighter CSI 300 The index increased by 0.44%. Hong Kong’s Exceed Seng He won 0.55 %.
Ipek Ozkardeskayasenior analyst Swissquote Bank, After his attack on Iran, he says that he is a “fascinating calm” in the markets:
Global stocks will probably remain under pressure – but when we look at how oil prices react to the weekend news, celloff may remain relatively soft compared to the weight of the headlines.
S&P Futures [the US stock market] It fell by about 0.30% – they act like a normal Monday. And this, I find it extremely interesting. The markets do not react more and more to the news. Lack of reaction is fascinating.
The US dollar has risen a little against a basket today while investors were looking for safe shelter assets.
The dollar index fell by 0.3% this morning and the pound decreased by 0.1%.
Carol Kongmoney strategist Society Bank conjunctive AustraliaHe said that the markets were in waiting and see mode about how Iran reacts, and that the conflict was more concerned about the negative inflationary effect than the negative economic effect.
Kong Describes:
“Foreign exchange markets will be at the mercy of comments and actions from Iran, Israel and US governments.
If the parties climb the conflict, the risks in safe shelter currencies are clearly inclined. “
Georgieva from the IMF warns the risks of growth from strikes from the USA
The President of the International Monetary Fund warned that last weekend that the US strikes on Iran could harm global growth if ultimately fluctuated beyond the energy markets.
Crystalline Georgieva He told Bloomberg TV this morning Explaining that the Middle East crisis is added to global uncertainty:
“We look at this as another source of uncertainty in an extremely uncertain environment.”
Georgieva He said that the IMF is closely monitoring energy prices and an increase in oil prices may have an economic impact. Says:
“There may be secondary and third effects. Let’s say there are more turbulence that multiplies growth expectations in large economies – then you have a triggering effect on downward revisions in global growth expectations.”
Georgieva He also hopes that energy supply paths will not deteriorate:
“Let’s see how the events will develop.
I pray no. “
Crystalina Georgieva of the IMF warned that US strikes in Iran may have wider effects beyond energy channels as global uncertainty increases. https://t.co/yqdc6u3hmf
– Bloomberg (@business) 23 June 2025
Introduction: In the middle of the Iranian crisis, oil returns from the highest level of five months
Good morning and welcome the business world to our financial markets and our world economy.
The oil price has reached its highest level since January after bombing the US’s nuclear facilities at the weekend.
Traders are in a largely risky mood because they weighed the chance to climb further in the Middle East and consider possible Iran retaliation. However, there is no panic in the markets.
When the new trading week started, there was an early leap in oil price; The raw prices rose over 4%and a barrel Brent Crude oil pushed the highest level of five months to $ 81.40.
But… Traders in London withdrawn even before they reach their tables, and now increased by 1.7% than $ 78.32 per barrel.
Yesterday, the Iranian Parliament voted to close the Hormuz Strait, but one -fifth of the world oil moved. If it were, it may create a supply shock that increases the energy price, nourishes inflation and damages growth.
In response, Marco RubioThe US Secretary of State warned that Iran’s throat closure would be “economic suicide, and called on China to shake Tehran at this point.
Rubio told Fox News:
“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them, because they are largely relying on the Hormuz Strait for oil.”
Holger Schmieding, chief economist Berenberg BankHormuz says that the Strait is “basic economic risk to watch .. However, he argues that a long -lasting disruption in the energy flows in the Gulf Region argues that it is not “possible, because it argues that trying to shorten energy exports will be a high -risk strategy for Tehran.
Schmieding He told customers this morning:
For more than twenty years, the Iranian regime has tried to destabilize various parts of the Middle East. On its own, a great mishap should be considered positive for Iran’s prominent attempt to obtain nuclear weapons.
In the short term, the United States raises geopolitical risks in the region against the three Iranian nuclear facilities to a new level. The markets will probably go to the “risk closed” mode while waiting for Iran’s reaction. However, in the long run, a seriously weakened Iranian regime can become an important positive for the region.
Agenda
-
Today: The UK government will publish its industrial strategy
-
09:00 BST: EURO ZONE FOR June Flash PMI Production and Services Survey
-
09:30 BST: UK Flash PMI Production Survey and Services for June
-
14:00 BST: Christine Lagarde witnesses the European Parliament in Brussels, Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee
-
14:45 BST: US Flash PMI Production Survey and Services for June
