Hurricane forecasters rapidly adjust outlook for distant system

If you are one of those who are worried about the tropical wave about 2,000 miles east of Porto Rico, take a deep breath slowly dragging to the west. No response about the final trace or intensity of this potential storm may not come immediately.

In the afternoon of 5 September, the National Hurricane Center reduced the formation of potential storms in the wave, reduced the chance of a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next five days, first rose from 90% to 70% and then to 60%.

Most of the latest prediction models show that if something develops from the tropical wave, it will only be a tropical depression and never make the storm status called the named storm. Therefore, the ultimate way and power of any developing storm is still an uncertainty.

“A dried air mass limits the development potential in the next few days, and environmental conditions will remain only margin.” He said.

A few models argue that there may be a storm or even a minimal hurricane, so it is recommended to continue to monitor the forecasts of interest in the Northeast Caribbean.

What does the latest estimate models say?

Estimation scenarios change daily because there is not yet an advanced center or structure, which makes a prediction much more difficult. The name called for the next name – Gabrielle – may have to wait for the next storm.

At first, the Atlantic can slowly follow a path towards the north of the wave that moves slowly to the west and can miss any roads based on computer models that receive data fields and help to estimate the potential trace and power of an storm. However, these models stayed everywhere on the morning of 5 September.

“For a while, an atmospheric pattern in the north has emerged, can take the system and take the sea to the sea, Küçük

Now the first model scenarios seem less and some of these estimates “I think it may be one of the greater global model forecasts of the last few seasons”, Hazelton published X on September 5th. On the morning of 5 September, satellite photos continued to show a clear circulation.

In his statement to Hazelton USA Today, it is unclear how strong any developing storm will be. Estimation models do not agree, and some show that it has become a just a weak system in the Caribbean, while others can be more powerful.

For at least a few days, even if the atlantic atlantic patterns do not take the wave to the sea, Hazelton said the winds in the north would provide dry air to intervene in any development.

The wave is still far from the east to send routine hurricane hunter flights. . National Hurricane Operation Plan When a hurricane is in the west of 500 miles or 52.5 longitude line, the states will be sent to hurricane hunter flights to get corrections in the storm position.

Most scenarios, Michael Lowry, a hurricane with WPLG 10 News in Southern Florida, keeps everything that develops or develops weaker in the tropical Storm Power.

However, the model groups that turn the wave into something more, he said later that it was “tending to be on the strong side” later. Regardless of the trends, the Lesser Antilles on the Leeward Islands advise people to keep close tabs in the storm, including the Virgin Islands and Porto Rico.

Does it have a hurricane potential?

Among the meteorologists who speak about a hurricane potential, there is a team in Accuweather.

Jonathan Porter, the main meteorologist of Accuweather, told the United States just before 13.00 on September 5th, “The storm can concentrate as a hurricane.”

Porter will be in an area that seems to be like a very few wind cuts as it progresses to the west. ” Combine this with very warm water in the Caribbean and “shows that it might be a hurricane.”

Porter said that the weather company uses approximately 200 models and suggested that many of them could be a hurricane ”. On the morning of September 5, NOAA pointed to one of the more talented models that show that the developing storm might be a category of 1 category 1 hurricane.

The Special Weather Company wrote in a consulting in the storm that was updated on the morning of September 5: “In the middle of the week, Leeward islands, heavy rain, strong winds and coarse seas, including a hurricane can experience worsening conditions near or right” “” “” “” “” “” “” “

Accuweather meteorologists say they expect “100-120 miles / hour the wind region to pass through the Northeast islands of the Caribbean” and may be a 4 to 8-inch rainy band.

Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA Today, has written about hurricanes, hurricane and severe weather for more than 30 years. Contact him at bluesky or x or dinahvp.77 at dpulver@usatody.com or @dinahvp.

This article was initially published on the Usa Today: Hurricane estimators set their views for the remote system