A Decades-Long Challenge After Devastating War
Auckland: The Gaza Strip is a tortured landmass approximately 40 km long and 11 km wide. Approximately 2.3 million souls are crammed into an area of approximately 360 square kilometers. This is slightly larger than central Sydney. People and empires have lived, built, fought and destroyed in this region for thousands of years.
The situation in Gaza is dire
The consequences of the Israeli-Palestinian war were catastrophic.
The human losses are enormous: the United Nations estimates that more than 67,000 Palestinians were killed and almost 170,000 injured. Approximately 1,200 Israelis have been killed and 5,400 injured since October 7, 2023.
Gaza was destroyed in many areas. The United Nations estimates that 83 percent of all structures and housing units in Gaza City were damaged. Gaza’s ability to support life is being questioned.
The latest ceasefire could lead to a longer-term peace. At the time of writing this remains the case, but optimism is not high. If peace is to continue in the long term, there is a need to explore ways to reestablish Gaza’s ability to sustain its population.
Priorities in the reconstruction of Gaza
Gaza is a disaster area. Infrastructure was significantly affected. The scale and scope of damage is similar to a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. As with any disaster, food, medicine and bottled water are immediate priorities. This will ensure the continuation of life in the short term.
Assuming that major efforts can be made to open border crossings, lives will be saved by providing emergency aid to victims of food and medical supplies shortages. Engineers will be an important resource in the reconstruction of Gaza.
After sustained bombing, priorities will be to rebuild buried assets such as electricity, water, sewage and pump stations. Although the original contours of buried pipes will be known from city maps, much of the infrastructure will be cracked, broken or destroyed.
Failure to do so will lead to epidemics of diseases such as typhus and dysentery. Unexploded bombs and ammunition will need to be cleared. Damaged homes and public buildings will pose major collapse risks to public safety.
Major demolition and cleanup will be required for millions of tons of debris. These immediate priorities will be followed by the construction or repair of hospitals, homes, schools, road systems and government infrastructure, all of which will be greatly compromised.
A daunting challenge
Realistically, it will take decades to design, finance and rebuild infrastructure in the Gaza Strip. Emergency fixes can be made in the short term (3-6 months), but if delays occur the winter season may cause further damage. Demolition requires special equipment and heavy-duty vehicles. The work needed is daunting. Just up the coast, Beirut faces the problem of what to do with 32 million tons of demolition waste from the last Israel-Lebanon conflict, not long after rebuilding after the civil war.
Gaza may face a similar dilemma, given how much demolition waste is on the ground. This is likely a residential prefabrication plan and a major logistical effort will be needed at the very least. Historical precedents outline the scale of the reconstruction task: Stalingrad’s reconstruction after World War II took more than 20 years, and Warsaw did not complete post-war reconstruction until the 1980s.
Creating the Gaza of the future depends on access to finance and resources. This is not just about money, it will require materials, skills and labor in the field. A sustainable peace requires dismantling existing infrastructure and creating new supply options.
Not all critical supplies and infrastructure are under his government’s control: Electricity, fuel and water currently come from Israel. Logistically, aid organizations are on site to continue some services. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) is one of them. It is a program tasked with providing basic humanitarian aid and services to Palestinian refugees.
In September, UNWRA provided access to 18 million liters of water to 370,000 people in Gaza and removed 4,000 tonnes of solid waste.
This means 3 billion liters of water per year to sustain Gaza society, equivalent to filling approximately 1,200 Olympic-size swimming pools and eliminating more than 600,000 tonnes of waste each year.
Any engineering solution will need to provide this level of support, if not much more. This is a big commitment for funders and engineers.
First of all, the new port infrastructure needs to be developed. Supply infrastructure independent of external controls, such as roads and ports, will be essential for the survival of any society in the post-war environment.
Potentially, much of the demolition waste from damaged buildings in Gaza could be used to reclaim land from the sea and provide breakwaters for it. However, since these wastes are extremely contaminated, other problems also arise.
A challenging future
Achieving these reconstruction outcomes simultaneously will require billions of dollars in aid over decades. Unless serious aid comes to the region, the cost of construction materials will inevitably increase and, accordingly, there will be a shortage of engineers and technicians.
As a result, this initiative is likely to be a massive mobilization effort over several years, no matter how much money is spent by donors.
