How China is factor in oil tanker seizures targeting Maduro, Venezuela

The escalating U.S. campaign to seize oil tankers bound for Venezuelan oil could also increase tensions between the U.S. government and China if more crude oil destined for the Chinese market is included in the U.S. military campaign.

On Saturday, the Panama-flagged tanker Centuries carrying sanctioned Venezuelan oil was seized. condemned by China. The seizure was the latest in President Donald Trump’s pledge to block tankers carrying Venezuelan oil. Shipping experts say the move is based on legal authority that suggests more seizures will occur, potentially targeting more oil destined for the Chinese market.

According to Dimitris Ampatzidis, Kpler’s senior risk and compliance analyst, the seizure of Panama-flagged Centuries 2002 Salas-Becker agreementThis allows U.S. authorities to give Panamanian-flagged ships only two hours’ notice.

“The most interesting part of the centuries-old seizure is the claim that the United States was likely based on a prior boarding agreement with the Panama Maritime Authority,” Ampatzidis said, adding that using that agreement could lead to additional seizures.

Kpler analysis shows that three of a total of 23 shadow tankers currently detected in Venezuela’s exclusive economic zone are operating under the Panamanian flag and loaded with sanctioned Venezuelan crude oil.

“If Ragnar, Balsa and Larko try to leave, that would put them in a higher risk practice category because they are operating under the Panamanian flag,” Ampatzidis said. “We may see seizures like we’ve seen for centuries.”

Ragnar was uploaded on December 16, and Balsa and Larko were uploaded on December 17.

“Beyond the ships already approved, the United States appears increasingly willing to target other ships associated with the shadow fleet when they attempt to leave Venezuela with cargo, especially if they are stateless (without a flag) or flying a Panamanian flag,” Ampatzidis said. he said.

“The most interesting part of all this is that by squeezing Venezuelan oil, you are not only putting tremendous pressure on the Maduro regime, but you are also strategically influencing China,” said Aaron Roth, a retired Coast Guard captain and director of federal strategy and security for the Chertoff Group. “The longer this goes on, it could create room for negotiation in U.S.-China diplomacy because Venezuelan oil is at a discount to China and that’s the type of heavy crude that China can refine,” he said. “Without VZ oil, China will have to go to the Russian and Middle Eastern markets, which will cost them more,” he added.

Venezuela has produced nearly 900,000 barrels of crude oil and condensate so far in 2025; this accounts for approximately 1% of the total global supply. Kpler data shows that China buys about 76% of Venezuelan production. The United States imported approximately 17% of Venezuela’s production in 2025. This means about half the percentage of production imported in 2024. Cuba, Spain and Italy are other important customers of Venezuelan oil.

Both the U.S. Coast Guard and the U.S. Department of Transportation referred requests for comment to the White House but did not respond at the time of publication.

Recent history of the captured Centurions tanker

Kpler data showed that Centuries had previously been actively involved in numerous operations associated with the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil and fuel oil, both as long-haul tanker loading at the Jose Oil Terminal in Venezuela and as a transshipment vessel operating offshore in Venezuela and Malaysia.

Kpler data showed that the US seized crude oil from the Jose Oil Terminal centuries after loading it. Kpler data detected fake AIS positions that concealed the tanker’s location just before the ship was loaded. Erroneous signals indicated that the ship had sailed for the Caribbean in early December, reaching the north coast of Curaçao on 12 December and apparently remaining stationary in that area.

However, image analysis by Kpler showed that the ship had in fact been off the coast of Venezuela since at least December 4. Additional supporting footage showed that the tanker was empty during this period. However, on December 9, satellite images confirmed that the tanker was loaded from the west pier of the Venezuelan port JOT.

Venezuelan port operations reports reviewed by Kpler showed that the ship, operating under the moniker “Crag,” was loaded with approximately two million barrels of Venezuelan Merey crude from the same pier during the Centuries’ loading. After loading, Centuries remained just east of JOT; The footage shows the tanker positioned off the coast of Lechería, Venezuela, on December 16.

“Two days later, satellite images showed that the ship had departed Venezuelan waters and was observed approximately three miles south of Grenada, consistent with a voyage toward Asia,” according to a report by Kpler on the Centennial capture.

The market cannot know in advance whether any sanctioned oil-filled ship is heading directly to China; It is used to prevent fraud and transfer between tankers and detection, and approval can only be obtained after the fact. According to Kpler, both ships seized over the weekend have a history of carrying crude oil to China.

For the first time in centuries, two million barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan Merey crude oil were loaded in April 2020. The oil was unloaded from the Yantai oil terminal in China’s Shandong Province.

The second ship seized over the weekend, Bella 1, was empty and heading towards Venezuela. At the beginning of the year, the tanker had transported Iranian oil to Qingdao, Shandong Province, in mid-March. Bella 1’s last voyage from Venezuela was in May 2023, and that oil also went to Qingdao and Tianjin, China.

“China’s response if the Trump administration seizes a ship heading their way has not yet been finalized,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

The centuries-old seizure of Panama-flagged ships also comes at a time of ongoing friction between the United States, China and Panama over control of the Panama Canal. Trump has threatened to take back the Panama Canal, saying the waterway is controlled by China.

“Geopolitics is increasingly affecting world trade, economic relations and maritime supply chains in many different ways. This appears to be another example of that,” said Peter Sand, chief marine analyst at Xeneta.

The United States’ use of a legal agreement requiring it to cooperate with Panama to seize the ships could be perceived by China in the context of the larger struggle over the canal. “If the ship is actually Panama-flagged and you’re going out on the high seas, you generally need flag state permission (which would be Panama for centuries),” said Brandon Daniels, CEO of supply chain consulting firm Exiger. “The United States and Panama have frameworks to facilitate this consent. This would most likely indicate cooperation through Salas-Becker or another mechanism,” he said.

China calls the latest US action a violation of international law, while the US considers the seizure as shadow fleet tactics aimed at evading and circumventing sanctions. “Given the documented misrepresentations of origin in this case, I lean heavily on the latter,” Daniels said.

But Daniels, who spoke to Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino about tensions over the Panama Canal earlier this year, added: “He takes their sovereignty very seriously.”

Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison owns and operates the ports of Balboa and Cristóbal on both sides of the canal. The US accused China of “having influence and control” over the canal and claimed the threat amounted to a “violation of the agreement” between the US and Panama.

A preliminary agreement was reached between the CK earlier this year regarding the sale of two disputed ports in the Panama Canal. The consortium led by Hutchison and BlackRock through its Global Infrastructure Partners unit and Mediterranean Shipping stalled. Beijing was against the agreement. China is reportedly pushing for state-owned ocean liner Cosco to board. have a controlling interest In the proposed $22.8 billion deal.

If Cosco is added to the deal, the Trump administration’s concerns about Chinese influence will remain, Daniels says. But he noted that Mulino also values ​​”the trust he has in his Asian trading partners.”

“I don’t think China’s more aggressive moves against Balboa and Cristobal will prevent Panama from keeping the canal neutral or cooperating with the United States,” Daniels said.

“With control of Cosco, China could gain a choke point in global commercial container transshipment capacity, berthing priority, shipyard operations and commercial data consumption. This puts pressure on the supply chain,” he said. “But the CCP may have influence over Hong Kong entities today (like the current operation owner CK),” he added.

Daniels said the current situation demonstrates Panama’s dynamic and complex relations with both China and the United States: “Panama is focused on becoming a South Asian corridor and a major flag state for ships, but is seeking cooperation with the United States as a strategic imperative for sustainable financing.”