A hectic half first heralds a volatile second
“Politics does not shake the tail – shaking the whole dog.”
These powerful words from a reserve manager to CNBC last week catch the first half of trade. In addition, they prepare the ground for an uncertain second half that “geoeconomy” seems ready to remain ready to remain a dominant market power.
This week, be careful to return to the monetary policy that holds their heads below in the midst of political tensions from all over the world.
Circuit
A lot has happened in the last six months, trade tensions and Truces sent worldwide stock markets.
The VIX Volatility Index, also known as the Wall Street horror indicator, rose as tariff threats in April, and then tariff pauses caused large intradic fluctuations among the major indices. Meanwhile, the “Black Swan” moments in the Middle East also kept investors on the edge.
DAX etc. S&P 500
In the midst of all uncertainty, some stock exchanges showed remarkable flexibility: Germany’s DAX is over 18% this year, then London’s FTSE 100 up to 9%, and the French CAC 40 is delayed with approximately 5% earnings.
What does all of these mean for trade in the second half of the year? “He warns that the high policy uncertainty, which is paired with a worse macro ground, will support higher equity volatility in the coming months,” Goldman Sachs warns.
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Central Banks Central Postplace at Sintra
Goldman’s warning is playing loudly in the ears of investors, while the scene is preparing to return to the center of attention of the central banks.
This week, the Sintra town in Portugal is home to the annual ECB forum, where European central bankers are combined by their international colleagues to exchange views on existing policy issues.
The sun may shine in Portugal – but President Donald Trump’s Recent comments will undoubtedly create a shadow at the meeting, as the Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell continues to put unprecedented pressure on it.
Last week, Trump’s name Powell rose and promised the “Shadow Fed Chair” that could take care of things until he took over as a chair next year.
Powell also involves pressure on the monetary policy peers and calls for the central bankers to keep them constant until they see the impact of trade tariffs: “We are in a good position to learn more about the possible course of the economy before thinking about any arrangement in our policy stance.”
Europe’s President Christine Lagarde will have to decide how much the United States to determine its policy with the opening procedures with a speech on Monday evening.
Wait a ton with punched; At the last time OP-ED in Financial Times He saw the call of the Euro to benefit from the current environment and to “gain global importance”.
Labor’s first year in power
The next Friday points to the first anniversary of the Labor Party’s first anniversary in England after 14 years of conservative administration. A landslide victory has returned to Downing Street with the promise of change and growth. However, the honeymoon period took a short time.
Quick 12 months and Prime Minister Keir Starmer seems ready to reach his first year in office Decrease approval ratings This put him under the rival party leaders, including Reform’s Nigel Farage, Liberal Democrat Sir Ed Davey and conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.
Starmer has faced a lot of external pressure from Elon Musk to a series of foreign policy difficulties in Ukraine and a series of foreign policy difficulties in the Middle East. With the first US Agreement, Europe, India, even three trade agreements have done very little to increase its popularity. However, economic difficulties at home cause the most discontent, Even his own party pressure To review certain reforms.
