A Litmus Test for Odisha’s Political Powerhouses

Bhubaneswar: The upcoming by-election in Nuapada has turned into a political crucible that could reshape the contours of Odisha’s power politics. What appeared to be a routine contest to fill a vacant assembly seat has now turned into a decisive test for all three major parties – Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress – each grappling with their own existential questions.

Nuapada, once seen as the impregnable bastion of the BJD, today reflects the growing unrest of the opposition party. The election of Snehangini Chhuria, a leader from Bargarh district, triggered a wave of discontent in the local unit. The revolt that followed – with more than 50 sarpanchs, panchayat committee members and hundreds of grassroots workers defecting to the BJP – marks a significant dent in the BJD’s once formidable organizational structure. The departure of senior leader Lambodhar Nial, who is contesting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from Kalahandi on a BJD ticket, has added to the party’s woes.

For over two decades, BJD has flourished due to unity, discipline and the appeal of Naveen Patnaik. However, after 2024, the party’s aura of invincibility seems to be fading. Many veterans abandoned ship, some found new homes in the BJP, while others drifted towards the Congress. The irony is hard to miss; The same strategies of evasion and fragmentation that once served the BJD so well are now being used effectively against it.

The BJP played its cards with precision. His biggest masterstroke came when Jay Dholakia, son of late BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia, joined the saffron camp. The move was not only symbolic but also strategic; It has shaken the internal confidence of the BJD and forced the regional party to recalibrate its entire campaign machinery. The BJP’s mobilization of local heavyweights and aggressive field strategy shows that it is leaving nothing to chance.

Initially, BJD had formed three district-level committees under Prasanna Acharya’s leadership and deliberately excluded coastal leaders to project a regional face. But as discontent grew, the party hastily parachuted in experienced election experts; This was a clear sign of tension.

It’s a tough challenge for Snehangini Chhuria. His home in Attabira, about 160 kilometers from Nuapada, and his recent loss by nearly 29,000 votes to the BJP’s Nihar Mahanand in 2024 have become rallying points for critics who question the wisdom of fielding a candidate from another district. “Isn’t there a capable leader in Nuapada?” has become a refrain echoing around tea stalls and street corners.

Meanwhile, the Congress, though weakened, showed unusual seriousness this time. The party, under Pradesh Congress Committee president Bhakta Charan Das, hopes to regain its prominence. In the last election, Congress’ official candidate Sarat Pattanayak garnered only 15,505 votes, while rebel Ghasiram Majhi (now reinstated) got over 50,000 votes. This time, Congress hopes to unite this divided vote.

But the risks are highest for Naveen Patnaik and Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi. For Naveen, a loss in Nuapada and a narrow loss in Hinjili after the setbacks in Kantabanji could deal a serious blow to his prestige and shake the public’s confidence in the BJD’s leadership. Conversely, a win for the BJP will act as a stamp of approval for Majhi’s fledgling government and strengthen the saffron party’s momentum narrative.

Political observers liken this contest to Napoleon’s Battle of Waterloo; This is a struggle not just for land but for inheritance. For some, Nuapada could decide who controls the narrative of Odisha’s political future.

“The mainstream view is that the general election may vary depending on local perceptions of power and patronage. By-elections generally favor the ruling party at the state or national level, as voters tend to expect tangible development benefits by cooperating with the government. But anti-incumbency currents, organizational discontent and shifting loyalties may make this contest far from predictable,” says Srirama Dash, a political observer.

Dash adds that the Nuapada by-election is, at its core, more than a local conflict. This is a referendum on leadership, loyalty and legitimacy; a referendum that could redraw Odisha’s political map ahead of the next major election cycle.

“Whether it will be Naveen’s Waterloo or Majhi’s moment of victory will be known only when the ballot papers are counted,” he said.