A new bill could create a tax rebate program
The possibility of receiving tariff dividend checks has also seemingly been ruled out after the Supreme Court struck down much of President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda last month, experts said.
“Tariff dividends were a long shot from the beginning,” certified financial planner Stephen Kates, a financial analyst at Bankrate, told CNBC at the time. Any such broad-based aid program requires legislation that must be approved by Congress, Kates said, and “there is not enough political support.” “The chances of this policy moving forward are now effectively zero.”
And then the “Tariff Refund Act for Working Families” was passed.
On Thursday, Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., introduced a bill that would create a new tax break for those hit by higher costs on everyday items due to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. If signed into law, the deduction would provide a $1,200 payment to joint filers with annual income under $180,000 starting in the 2026 tax year, as well as an additional $600 for each dependent child.
Tariffs are a tax on imports from foreign countries and are paid by U.S. entities that import the product. Companies often bear some of the cost and pass the rest on to consumers through higher prices.
An article published last month A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that US firms and consumers will bear the “majority” (roughly 90%) of the economic burden of tariffs imposed in 2025. White House officials disputed that finding.
“This bill would return the money lost due to Trump’s tariffs to those who paid the price,” Heinrich said. release explains its legislation.
A customer shops at a grocery store in Miami, Florida, on March 11, 2026.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
The Supreme Court hasn’t ruled on potential tariff refunds, but “it seems that without new legislation, the law states that the senders of the tariff checks, the importers, will get refunds even if they’re not harmed,” said Tomas Philipson, a professor of public policy studies at the University of Chicago and former acting chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. he said.
Following the high court’s decision, the White House invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to force Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to enact the new tariffs. in question “It will result in virtually unchanged tariff revenue in 2026.”
Impact of the tariff on consumers
A recent analysis by Budget Lab at Yale found that prices increased Due to tariffs until March 9 It was expected to cost each household an average of $450 to $570. If Section 122 tariffs are made permanent, the household loss figure would be between $770 and $940. US Congress Joint Economic Committee bring the predictions closer together $2,500 per household.
“There is no way to completely eliminate the economic impacts of the tariffs enacted last year,” Bankrate’s Kates said in an email to CNBC this week. He also said direct payments could cause inflation to worsen.
As oil prices rise and global trade faces uncertainty, “introducing new stimulus, even if targeted at specific households, could be risky at a time when inflation pressures are rising,” Kates said.
affordability issue
Heinrich’s bill is part of Democrats’ efforts to address affordability issues ahead of the election. Experts say that midterm elections will take place in 2026. The expanding US war in the Middle East has further fueled cost-of-living concerns as energy prices soar.
Republicans also floated the idea of direct distribution to Americans ahead of the midterm elections in November.
“While both parties are eager to claim credit for a popular policy ahead of the midterm elections, injecting additional money into the economy could also intensify the price increases targeted by the refunds,” Kates said.
But Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School, said that since companies are unlikely to cut their prices to reflect a rollback on Trump’s tariff agenda, “it might make some sense” for the government to direct its refunds to households and businesses that bear some of the burden.
Additionally, House said, “Since both sides of the aisle have proposed legislation to implement these refunds, it should be possible to find bipartisan support for this.”
An idea for a stimulus check
The idea of stimulus checks funded by tariff revenues was first floated by the president in July. That summer, you. Josh Hawley, R-Mo. introduced American Workers’ Benefits Act of 2025. The Senate referred the bill to the Finance Committee, where it remained.
In late 2025, Trump said a rebate check would soon arrive with the money his tariffs generated.
“Everyone will be paid a dividend of at least $2,000 per person (except high-income earners!),” the president wrote in an op-ed. to mail At Truth Social in November.
At the end of last year, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett also said that “the president will submit a proposal to Congress to make this happen.”
When asked about tariff cuts in January, Trump said the checks would come “near the end of the year.”
