Russia will lose an ally if Iran falls. Why does it matter for Moscow?
Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Tehran, Iran, on January 9, 2026.
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With Iran’s future at stake as civil unrest gathers momentum, there is little it can do but watch and wait as its powerful ally Russia considers the United States’ next move against the Islamic Republic.
US President Donald Trump has not ruled out military strikes against the conservative religious regime that has ruled Iran since 1979. He repeated that threat on Tuesday, warning that the United States would take “very strong action” if Iran executed arrested protesters. Trump has already said that any country doing business with Iran would face a 25 percent tariff.
Russia will focus on how events in Iran will develop, given Tehran’s position as Moscow’s key strategic, military, economic and commercial partner in the Middle East.
The possibility of the fall of another ally in the Middle East will be worrying for Moscow, especially after seeing its alliances with Venezuela, Syria and Iran. Caucasia has recently been disrupted, damaging its power and influence abroad.
“Moscow sees the potential loss of Iran as a much more significant risk to both its regional national standing and its influence in Syria, Venezuela or possibly Armenia than the loss of influence in Syria, Venezuela or possibly Armenia over the last few years,” Max Hess, founder of political risk consultancy Enmetena Advisory, told CNBC on Tuesday.
“This is because Iran itself is a regional projector of power and offers Russia a platform to build alliances and expand its own influence,” he said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures to Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji (second from left) during a welcoming ceremony at the airport in Tehran, Iran, July 19, 2022. Putin and his Turkish counterpart Erdogan came to Iran for the summit.
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Mario Bikarski, senior analyst for Europe and Central Asia at Verisk Maplecroft, acknowledged that the collapse of any regime would be worrying for Moscow because it would mean another loss of power and influence, but could also lead to broader regional instability in the Caucasus region separating Russia and Iran.
“There have been protests in Iran in the past, and Russia always looked at them but never reacted because they probably hoped that the Iranian regime could withstand the pressure. But [this time] “The pressure is increasing, and this is not only at home but also abroad,” he said.
“If the Iranian regime falls, Russia will probably have to struggle and find new ways to ensure that instability does not reach its limits and at the same time maintain some influence in the region,” he said.
Bikarski warned that if a leadership vacuum emerged in Iran and rival groups competed for power, leading to more violence and unrest, it would mean “a major security problem for Russia and many other countries in the region.”
Subtle partnership
Neither the Kremlin nor Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on the events unfolding in Iran; but it is not uncommon for the Russian leadership to provide a muted response when trying to gauge the outcome of a particular event and how its strategic interests are affected.
Russian state media has downplayed the protests in Iran, but Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu on Monday reiterated Iran’s accusations of Western interference, condemning what he described as “attempts by foreign powers to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs.”
Common anti-Western ideology has been another binding factor for Russia and Iran, as have international sanctions; This meant that Moscow was one of the few international partners it could rely on for military hardware assistance after Iran invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Relations deepened significantly during the war. Iran provides “Shahed” attack planes to Russia and missiles, ammunition, and artillery, allegedly for use in warfare. Tehran admits it provided Russia with drones but says it did so before the war.
In return, Iran reportedly received military technology and intelligence from Russia, as well as funding for its space and missile programs. Tehran was also thought to covet Russian Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 air defense missile systems, but this is not certain whether he ever got these.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) shakes hands with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (left) during their meeting in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, on October 11, 2024.
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But one of the clearest signs that the alliance was more nuanced than it initially appeared was Russia’s holding back during rising tensions between Iran and Israel and 12 days of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Analysts told CNBC at the time that Russia likely could not support Tehran militarily given its operations in Ukraine, but was also reluctant to support Iran because any direct conflict with the United States and Israel would be extremely dangerous and damaging to Russia.
The end of an alliance?
Analysts say Moscow’s detachment is likely a wake-up call to Tehran’s leadership about the limits of its alliance with Putin; These borders are still visible today.
“There is nothing meaningful that Russia can provide to save the Iranian regime. It’s too late now, and I’m not even sure the opportunity to help the regime domestically exists since the uprising of the Iranian people,” Bilal Saab, associate fellow of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Program, told CNBC on Tuesday.
“Russia is unlikely to come to Iran’s aid or commit significant military expenditures to support the regime,” Hess said.
“Russia puts its own interests first… and at least under Vladimir Putin, it does not believe in alliances, but only in ways of projecting power.”
Bikarski said this is something the Kremlin would plan to do in the event of regime change in Iran.
“Russia will try to re-establish relations with whoever succeeds the Islamic Republic and will try to ensure that whatever new government is formed, their interests are shared.” he remarked; Alternatively, Russia’s “complete push out of the Middle East” was also on the cards.
He said that this scenario would be extremely undesirable for Russia.
“While he does not currently have the capacity to exert military force or have a very strong trade relationship, he still wants to be seen as a partner in that region and does not want to voluntarily cede all his influence to the United States.”
