JUST SPAMMING | Forecasts More Menacing Than The Weather
It was the weather conditions, inclement weather even, that captured people’s imagination last week and prevented the state from coming out of the holiday mood and resuming normal activities after the Deepavali long weekend. Rains that wreak havoc during the Deepavali season have happened in the past as well. But last week the rains took on a threatening tone as some sections of the media reported that red or orange alerts had been issued in some districts, frightening people and preventing many families who had gone home for the festival from returning to their workplaces.
Unlike the past, when all people relied on the India Meteorological Department, a good old organization founded in 1875 by the British East India Company, who wanted to know in advance the vagaries of nature in a foreign country, for weather information, the modern generation has its own iconic weather forecasters. Some have even become celebrities with an avid fan base due to the popular perception that the government department cannot accurately predict the weather. So new age weathermen began telling people about rain that would lash them or blow them away leaving them high and dry.
The new trend of learning the weather from self-styled amateurs may feel that they have made redundant the sick old joke of All India Radio announcing heavy rains for the city when in fact the listener looks out the window to see the scorching sun scorching the garden. Although weather forecasts are not always expected to be accurate, it is now a question how much error can be tolerated in this age of advanced technology. Many people argue that volunteer weather forecasters are closer to the target than IMD employees.
But Chennai had a career meteorologist from IMD who became a household name during his tenure. Many television viewers missed him greatly after his retirement in 2016. Beyond his predictions – though he was not on duty that day, which was never in his hands as rains even disrupted his daughter’s wedding in Chennai – he was known for his media-savvy presentation, encouraging people to watch the weather news. But when amateur forecasters came on the scene, people admired them because they believed they were more accurate.
What’s causing real concern right now is the way weather reports are being treated in the media and on social media, rather than errors in forecasts. Some YouTube channels and mainstream media also frequently cause panic by highlighting ‘red alerts’ and ‘orange alerts’ issued to regions. Like last week, the panic level was so high that Chennai roads were empty, many people who went out of the city were not returning home and those at home preferred to stay indoors out of fear. In fact, fear of rain in Chennai has reached its lowest level since 2015.
This was the year of an unprecedented disaster brought to Chennai by the rains. In fact, the Union Government’s National Institute of Disaster Management published a book titled Chennai Floods 2015 following the incident and classified the floods caused by the North East monsoon as ‘one of the deadliest events’ in the country. While he widely talked about rapid urbanization, uneven and faulty development, pointing out various natural and human factors, the point is that no one could have foreseen the floods that ravaged human settlements. Now authorities, urban planners and those involved in disaster management seem to have taken this into account and are drawing up plans for mitigation and management strategies.
However, the impact of the disaster is still ongoing and people panic at the first drop of drizzle during the North East Monsoon season. When weather reports predict heavy rains and mention red alerts, it is because of this collective fear that forces people to fear the worst. Although the IMD, as per its duty and responsibility, warns the public about the impending downpour, news organizations emphasize the public’s fear by not commenting on basic information. Since most meteorological forecasts are common to a large area of land, and the weather itself tends to change, it occasionally leads to boomerangs of alarm for those issuing the warnings.
People who take a media news seriously and take precautions by skipping an important task lose faith in such warnings when the expected rain, storm, thunderstorm or something else does not happen. So the next time a warning is given, they tend to ignore it and put themselves and their loved ones in danger. If IMD issues a red alert to Chennai for the next day, which actually starts with the sun shining in the city, people will just make fun of the predictions. Therefore, the responsibility falls on both social and mainstream media to inculcate faith in such weather forecasts among ordinary people. The way such warnings are presented in the media is also important.
Media channels warn people using age-old formats, leaning towards vague “do’s and don’ts”. There is only confusion during rainy weather as there is no attempt to make people understand the real situation and take weather reports, especially warnings, in the right perspective.
