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After the Iran war, what’s next for tech?

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This past week has seen some progress, albeit uneasy and tentative, toward ending the Iran war.

A two-week ceasefire was agreed on Wednesday, and although it appears fragile, hopes that the conflict is nearing an end are prompting analysts to look ahead and assess its long-term impact on the global tech sector.

Exports of helium, a key material in chipmaking and other manufacturing processes, have already been significantly reduced by the conflict, and some European companies have faced delays in semiconductor deliveries from Asia due to disrupted flight paths. Experts also warned that a protracted conflict would create uncertainty over future data center and AI infrastructure projects in the region.

Now analysts tell me that a month and a half of conflict in the Middle East has damaged its reputation as a place to invest, and they can see some backers trying to put money elsewhere in the world.

Wealthy local investors can help support technology projects in the region, and in the long term it still has attractive conditions for international technology companies and investors, especially due to the availability of cheap energy and land.

People wave Iranian flags as they attend the funeral of Iranian Revolutionary Guard navy commander Alireza Tangsiri and others killed in US-Israeli attacks on Iran at Enghelab Square in Tehran on April 1, 2026.

AFP | Getty Images

reputation damage

Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar, said the conflict would likely negatively impact short-term investor confidence in the region.

“For many countries, this has been a reminder that national security must be prioritized, which will reduce cross-border investment.”

Simon Lapthorne, senior research analyst at Rathbones, told me that AI data center deployments could also slide down the priority list for countries directly affected by conflict.

“Wars inevitably increase uncertainty, hitting confidence and investment decisions far beyond the region,” he said.

But Lapthorne added that the impact on technology projects in the Gulf is more about timing than a complete disappearance of demand.

CSS Insight technology industry analyst Ian Fogg said attacks on data centers in the Middle East will make it harder for countries to become major AI hubs running workloads from customers in other regions, but demand for AI in the region should continue.

“Business cases for AI investment will likely narrow to focus on AI workloads originating from the region and benefiting consumers and businesses in the GCC region,” he added.

Mehdi Paryavi, CEO of the International Data Center Authority think tank, told me that while he expects some companies to diversify their investments into other regions such as Europe, Latin America and the Asia-Pacific, “the reality is that the Middle East region is too rich in resources to be ignored.”

The huge spending power of the region’s mostly state-backed local investors will also likely continue.

“I expect local sovereign wealth funds to remain committed to capital expenditure projects in the region and they will be supportive,” said Paul Markham, head of global equities at GAM Investments.

wider impact

Outside the Middle East, the repercussions of the conflict are expected to be felt in the technology sector for a while longer.

“We have yet to see the full impact of higher energy prices on the global economy due to economic lags,” said CSS Insight’s Fogg. Increases in energy prices will likely also affect consumer demand for technology products as disposable spending is affected.

Data center operators, who spend significant amounts on energy each year, may also be affected by price increases.

Others point to the ongoing effects of helium shortages as a worrying trend.

“Helium is not a significant cost driver, but any supply disruption could quickly become a constraint on chip production, with knock-on effects across a wide range of industries,” Lapthorne said.

For now, as the United States, Israel and Iran struggle to find common ground, industry watchers can only speculate and hope for a quick end to the conflict.

Markets will likely remain volatile until a definitive solution is found. Only time will tell when and how this will happen.

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