After U.S. strike and Maduro’s fall, is Venezuelan ‘Chavismo’ facing its end?

MEXICO CITY — Hugo Chavez called the United States an “empire” and President George W. Bush a “devil.” Denouncing capitalism as the “road to hell”, he put forward an alternative economic model that nationalized key industries and redistributed wealth.

During his 14-year presidency of Venezuela, Chavez warned of a CIA plot to kill him and steal his country’s vast oil reserves, declaring: “Homeland, socialism or death!”

Now, after the United States attacked Venezuela and imprisoned Chávez’s successor, Nicolás Maduro, the future of the leftist movement created by Chávez and known as Chavismo may be in jeopardy.

Venezuela’s interim leader, Delcy Rodriguez, insists his country “will not become a colony” of any imperial power, but appears willing to tolerate President Trump’s demands that the United States provide “full access” to Venezuelan oil.

Rodríguez, Maduro’s vice president, has called for reform of Venezuela’s energy sector to attract foreign investment and freed dozens of dissidents once considered enemies of the Chavista revolution.

“Venezuela is entering a new political era that allows understanding despite political and ideological differences and diversity,” Rodríguez said last week. In the capital Caracas on Thursday, he met with CIA Director John Ratcliffe, whose agency helped plan Maduro’s kidnapping.

“It’s quite interesting to see how a hard-line Chavista like Delcy made a 180-degree turn just a week after taking over the presidency,” said İmdat Öner, a former Turkish diplomat in Caracas.

Some analysts now wonder whether the days are numbered for Chavismo, which has allowed Chavez to consolidate power under a banner that extols nationalism, populism and what he calls “socialism of the 21st century.”

“I think he’s in intensive care and I don’t think he’ll come out of the operating room,” said Mexican historian Enrique Krauze, who wrote Chavez’s biography. Krauze said the movement was weakened by the US offensive and discredited by authoritarianism, widespread corruption among leaders and an economic crisis triggered by falling oil prices and US sanctions that caused a quarter of the population to flee.

Krauze said the ideas of Chavez, a charismatic figure who inspired a generation of Latin American leftists, had been irrevocably tainted.

“Venezuelans are exhausted after 26 years of Chavismo,” wrote Venezuelan journalist Boris Muñoz. Time magazine. “Understandably, many are willing to accept American tutelage as the price to pay.”

Other political analysts say Chavismo remains strong even as aspects of its identity have changed since its namesake died of cancer 13 years ago.

“What’s left of Chavismo? Everything,” said Javier Corrales, a professor of political science at Amherst College. Corrales said “not a single person has been displaced” other than the removal of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who now faces drug trafficking charges in the United States. “The inner circle, military generals, collectivesGovernors, mayors, they are all there.”

He noted that despite his violent anti-US rhetoric, Chavez continued his intense oil trade with the US. He said the current agreement with the Americans “is not a departure from anything Chavismo has ever represented.”

In Caracas, where scattered faded portraits of Chavez still adorn the walls, there is a sense that little has changed since US bombs woke residents before dawn on January 3. This is disappointing for many Venezuelans who despise Maduro and his rule. This is a relief for those who support the government.

On a sunny morning last week, about 2,000 Chavistas marched down a downtown street.

“It’s not going to be easy to wipe out socialism overnight with a few bombs and the kidnapping of a president,” said Wilson Barrios, 37, who works for the Department of Education.

“Chavismo is not a fad,” he said. “It is a way of life and a belief with principles.”

Leader of the Pink Wave

A former military officer inspired by Marxist thinkers and revolutionaries such as Simón Bolivar and Fidel Castro, Chavez was one of the most important political figures in recent Latin American history.

His election in 1998 helped unleash Latin America’s “pink wave,” in which leftist leaders rose to power from Argentina to Brazil to Ecuador.

His populist rhetoric and mixed-race background appealed to the masses in a country long ruled by an elite minority of mostly white pro-business politicians with close ties to the U.S. and foreign oil majors.

Buoyed by record oil prices that swelled state coffers, Chavez launched social programs that reduced poverty rates. His government built homes for the poor and provided free and subsidized basic food items to those in need. He opened hospitals and schools and reduced infant mortality.

An outspoken critic of US intervention in Latin America and what he sees as rampant materialism in the “imperialist” US, Chavez has forged alliances with Washington’s enemies such as China, Cuba and Iran.

Speaking at the UN General Assembly in 2006, a day after Bush’s speech on the Iraq war, Chavez said: “The devil was here yesterday… this place still smells of sulfur!”

Venezuela’s unhappy elites tried to unseat Chavez, especially during the short-lived coup in 2002, but Chavez went on to win elections.

With his death in 2013 and the rise of Maduro, a former union leader who lacked the charisma of his mentor, the tide began to turn. Then came a dramatic drop in oil prices; inevitable in an industry prone to boom and bust cycles.

As incomes declined, the economy collapsed amid rising inflation. The queues for bread and medicine went on for hours. Malnutrition and infant mortality increased. Millions of people fled the country.

Support for Maduro dropped and the opposition easily defeated his party’s candidates in 2015 parliamentary elections. Sanctions imposed on Venezuela’s oil industry during Trump’s first term made matters worse for Maduro.

From the beginning, Maduro was deepening the authoritarianism that began under Chavez, a pattern that Corrales said was “based on the idea that the revolution will never give up power.”

Although Maduro claimed he won a disputed election in 2018, the United States and other countries refused to recognize the results. In 2024, Maduro declared victory again, but tallies from voting machines collected by the opposition showed he lost by a wide margin.

Maduro has suppressed dissent, jailed hundreds of activists, ordered government forces to open fire on protesters and triggered a new exodus of immigrants.

There’s a pink tide in the rearview mirror these days, with conservatives winning recent elections in Ecuador, Argentina and Chile.

John Polga-Hecimovich, a Latin America expert at the United States Naval Academy, said migration from Venezuela to neighboring countries in recent years has colored many people’s views on left-wing politics in general and Chavismo in particular.

It has become common across the region for right-wing candidates to accuse their left-wing opponents of being like Chavez and wanting to turn their country into “another Venezuela.”

True believers or pragmatists?

Rodríguez has deep revolutionary roots. His father was a Marxist guerrilla who was killed in 1976 after kidnapping an American businessman. Rodríguez, who was one of Chávez’s first followers and whom he still calls “commander,” said that building a socialist state was his “personal revenge” for his father’s death.

But as he rose through the ranks of Maduro’s government in recent years, Rodríguez showed a pragmatic side.

He made deals with business elites to fix the economy and promoted a reform that allowed Venezuelans to use dollars instead of bolívars. He helped change laws to make the energy industry more attractive to foreign capital.

His efforts caught the attention of White House officials, who were considering a possible operation to oust Maduro last year.

Now Rodríguez must walk a fine line, continuing to signal his revolutionary good intentions to hard-line Chavistas while appeasing Trump, who has warned that he will “pay a huge price” if he does not comply with U.S. demands.

He condemned the “horrible military attack” by US forces, but also had a “long and courteous phone call” with Trump and said they discussed “with mutual respect” a bilateral agenda that would benefit both nations. He also called her “an amazing person.”

A pro-government supporter holds pictures of the late President Hugo Chávez during a campaign rally in Caracas on November 18, 2021.

(Manaure Quintero / Getty Images)

Former diplomat Öner said his closeness with Washington does not mean Rodríguez has abandoned his revolutionary ideology. He believes that he and other leaders sacrificed some of their core principles to save Chavismo.

Öner said, “They are doing this for the survival of the regime.” “They need to be flexible to stay in power, otherwise they will lose everything.”

Still, Öner said, there is little doubt that Chavez will be disappointed.

“He will feel deeply betrayed by Delcy’s actions.”

Linthicum and McDonnell reported from Mexico City, while James reported from California. Special correspondent Mery Mogollón from Caracas, Venezuela, contributed.