Can India be global power without winning over its neighbors?

Something extraordinary is happening right on India’s doorstep, but the country seems determined to ignore it. In September, young protesters in Nepal forced Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli to resign. This comes just a year after Bangladesh’s monsoon revolution ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from power and three years after Sri Lanka’s aragalaya movement ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022. These are not random events; They are part of a youth-led uprising that is reshaping South Asia as India focuses on becoming a global power.

What makes these movements striking is their leadership. Armed with smartphones and frustration, Generation Z takes to the streets. In Nepal, more than 25% of the population is under the age of 15, the average age is only 25, and one-fifth of young people are unemployed. Nepal, which ended the monarchy in 2008, has had 14 governments in 17 years. Corruption, nepotism and the banning of 26 social media platforms have pushed young people beyond the breaking point. An interim government in Bangladesh is currently led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, while Nepal is under former Chief Justice Sushila Karki. Political dynasties fell in Sri Lanka’s 2024 elections as Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who leads the left alliance, shocked everyone by winning.

As this generational rebellion unfolds, India is busy projecting itself globally, hosting the G20 in 2023, advancing space missions and becoming the fastest-growing major economy. India is poised to become the world’s third largest economy by the end of the decade. But this global ambition comes at a price: The problems next door have been largely ignored.

This neglect was evident at the Raisina Dialogue, India’s premier foreign policy conference co-organized by the Ministry of External Affairs. This major international forum brings together global leaders and diplomats to discuss politics, security and economics. However, Ukraine, Gaza, artificial intelligence and even sending Indian peacekeepers to Ukraine were discussed at the conference, but South Asian issues were not touched upon much. It happened just six months after the Bangladesh revolution toppled one of India’s friendliest governments and a month before the deadly Kashmir attack, which created the worst India-Pakistan tensions in more than 20 years. There is also no discussion about India’s role in Afghanistan or Myanmar.

The region India calls home is struggling. Four countries are under IMF bailout: Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Two of these are near-failed states: Afghanistan and Myanmar. Two nuclear-armed neighbors have border disputes with India (China and Pakistan). Despite being neighbors, South Asian countries barely trade together. Only 5% of total trade takes place within the region. The fact that SAARC has not met since 2014 shows how weakened regional ties have become.

During a private debate in the UK, an Indian parliamentarian said India now sees its neighbors not by geography but by common interests, especially after tensions in Pakistan. Even though groups such as Quad and BRICS have become active, they cannot replace strong neighborly ties. Many people blame the India-Pakistan relationship for the territorial divide, but this does not explain why BIMSTEC, which excludes Pakistan, has held only six summits since 1997.

This mix of instability in South Asia and India’s regional neglect needs attention. Most countries face threats from nearby regions; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens Europe, and the Cuban missile crisis was America’s most immediate threat during the Cold War. India’s focus on global power status while ignoring regional responsibilities cannot continue.

India’s negligence is evident even within its own borders. The recent Ladakh unrest on the border with China and Pakistan mirrors the 2023 violence in Manipur, a state bordering Myanmar. In both cases the government reacted slowly. Prime Minister Modi visited Manipur only after more than two years. India’s “Act East” policy, which aims to build ties with Southeast Asia, has stalled as key road and trade links are blocked by civil war in Myanmar and the less friendly government of Bangladesh.

Before becoming a global economic power, China established strong regional trade and infrastructure links. If India wants to become a global manufacturing hub, it needs to establish stronger economic ties with its neighbors. It’s not just economics; It’s also about influence and stability.

Western countries often view India as separate from South Asia. The British Foreign Office has separate departments for India and Afghanistan-Pakistan. The US Department of Defense assigns India to Indo-Pacific Command and Afghanistan and Pakistan to Central Command. The appointment of Sergio Gor as US ambassador to India and special envoy for South and Central Asia is positive, but India is concerned that it could re-link its policy to Pakistan and treat it solely as a South Asian power rather than a global power.

The understanding must change. Nearly 40 percent of South Asians are under 18, the region faces serious climate risks, and migration issues are affecting the world. Prominent international media outlet Foreign Policy recently quizzed Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar on this issue – why South Asian countries lack strong unity and cooperation. Jaishankar highlighted various initiatives through which India is trying to strengthen regional ties, including infrastructure projects, financial assistance and supply of vaccines and food grains to neighbours. But as Foreign Policy’s inquiry shows, this still does not fully explain why South Asian countries lack unity and trust. Much more work is needed.

Youth movements are challenging the old political elites. This may end the era of “fight against begums” in Bangladesh between the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. It could weaken the control of older leaders in Nepal. Many South Asian countries use the Sino-Indian rivalry for gain while maintaining their independence. China has become an important trading partner and investor. Some parties gain support through anti-India stands; The slogan “India Out” played a key role in the Maldives and Bangladesh campaigns.

But India remains the main regional power and an important partner. Delhi provided financial assistance to Sri Lanka and the Maldives as a lender of last resort during economic crises. Today, when international organizations lose their influence, regional cooperation is vital. Western countries cannot enforce South Asia’s unity, but they can help with climate protection, migration management and improved connectivity.

South Asia is home to almost a quarter of the world’s population. What happens here (political, economic, social) affects the world. A quarter of humanity is restless, wants change, and reshapes politics. The question is whether India will watch its neighborhood before these tremors turn into something bigger. India cannot become a truly global power while its own backyard is burning. Delhi needs to look closer to home.

(The author of this article is a Defense, Aerospace and Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also the Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above belong to the author and do not reflect the views of DNA)