Alarm grows in Europe over what is seen as Trump’s ‘betrayal’ of Ukraine

WASHINGTON— The Trump administration’s new push to resolve Russia’s war in Ukraine is shaking up European governments, who fear Washington is laying the groundwork for Moscow to issue an ultimatum to Kiev on its terms.

The flurry of diplomatic talks has Ukrainian and European diplomats worried that President Trump and his team are planning Russia’s World War II in Europe, which Vladimir Putin launched in 2022 with the aim of conquering Ukraine and destroying its democratic government. He raised alarm that he was accepting the justification for war that precipitated the deadliest conflict since World War II.

This is the latest seesaw in Ukraine policy since Trump took office again. The president repeatedly vented anger and frustration at Ukraine for its insistence on defending itself, only to reverse course days or weeks later, temporarily embracing European partnerships, the NATO alliance, and Kiev’s hopes for victory.

The administration appeared to have decided on a long-term course this week, releasing a National Security Strategy document on Friday that suggested Europe had “unrealistic expectations” about the outcome of the war and would seek to build political “resilience” against Europe’s “current course.”

The document states that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization should not be seen as an expanding alliance in perception and practice, a reference to the long-standing argument legitimizing Russia’s military stance on the continent.

Americans overwhelmingly oppose Trump’s current approach by a 2-to-1 margin; This would force Ukraine to give up its sovereign territory, including territory that Russia was unable to secure on the battlefield despite suffering more than a million casualties. A recent Gallup poll found that Republicans disapprove of Trump’s Ukraine policy more than any other issue.

Still, the president’s advisers appear sympathetic to a plan that would force Ukraine to give up territory in exchange for non-binding commitments to secure the rest of the country going forward.

Steve Witkoff, a former real estate developer, and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, who negotiated the Abraham Accords between Middle Eastern countries during Trump’s first term, are leading the current effort, shuttling between Moscow and Florida, where they are hosting Ukrainian diplomats to develop a peace plan. The current framework is based on a 28-article document prepared by the Americans with Russian consultation.

A phone call between Witkoff and his Russian counterpart last month, a transcript of which was leaked, revealed that Witkoff had given Moscow tips on how to gain Trump’s sympathy. Russian officials also expressed confidence to local media that Trump’s team understood their demands.

“Without clarity on security guarantees, there is a possibility that the United States will betray Ukraine on the territorial issue,” French President Emmanuel Macron said in a phone call between European leaders this week, according to a transcript obtained by Der Spiegel.

In the same meeting, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said of the Americans, “They are playing games with both you and us.”

In Ukraine, leading analysts question whether a peace plan that cedes territory would be supported even by soldiers and generals on the battlefield. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted to Trump that the country’s territorial integrity and future security guarantees should be the cornerstones of a valid peace agreement.

But experts said Trump could jeopardize Ukraine’s ability to wage war if he finally loses patience.

“The United States is still providing significant intelligence assistance and is so far willing to sell weapons to European countries for transfer to NATO,” said Brian Taylor, director of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs at Syracuse University.

The United States has already stopped direct aid to Ukraine’s war effort; Instead, it accepted a NATO agreement under which arms and equipment would be sold to Europe and supplied to Kiev.

“If the United States even stops doing that — and that would be a pretty radical policy change if the United States is even reluctant to sell weapons to European countries — then Europe will have to continue on the path it’s already on, which is to strengthen its own defense production capacity,” Taylor said.

Macron, Merz and other European allies, including British Prime Minister Kier Starmer and Britain’s King, have asked the president to remain steadfast in his support for Ukraine and increase pressure on Moscow, insisting that Putin may change his calculations over time.

European leaders are debating whether to distribute some of the $220 billion in Russian assets frozen in European banks since the start of the all-out invasion of Russia to Kiev in the form of aid, or to keep the funds as a point for future negotiations.

“If the Trump administration and the Europeans are willing to do this, it could put real pressure on the increasingly stressed Russian military and economy,” said Kyle Balzer, a scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “Russia’s economic growth has been hit hard by low energy prices and Russia’s increasing defense burden. And the Russian military is suffering losses that the Russian people cannot ignore forever.”

Speaking to reporters this week, Trump said that nearly 7,000 Russian soldiers die on the battlefield a week; This is a staggering number in modern warfare. Comparatively, fewer than 4,500 American soldiers died in the US’s eight-year war in Iraq.

“Such pressure will have a decisive effect only if the Trump administration stops giving Putin hope that Russia can get a positive deal in exchange for deals that will benefit American companies,” Balzer added. “The West must attack Russia’s resolve and convince Putin that it cannot achieve its goals. Continuing to give Putin hope makes this an unlikely prospect.”