Poll shows Tories racing ahead of major rival party for the first time | Politics | News
The Conservatives overtook Labor to head to the polls for the first time since Boris Johnson occupied 10 Downing Street. The Telegraph’s poll tracker shows the Conservative Party has its best average score since May at 18.5%, signaling a significant turnaround under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership.
By contrast, Labor’s vote share fell to 18% after Sir Keir Starmer faced a few more disasters at the helm; This amounts to just over half of its votes in the last general election. The Conservatives last had an advantage over Labor in late 2021, when Mr Johnson’s popularity collapsed spectacularly amid the party-gate scandal and bitter rows within the Conservative Party.
The Telegraph notes that the poll tracker weights the latest data from renowned pollsters such as YouGov, Opinium and Savanta based on their accuracy in predicting previous election results.
Reform UK continues to lead
Reform UK has consistently topped the polls since March, gaining a significant double-digit lead over both the Conservatives and Labor. Nigel Farage’s party is currently on track to return to power at the next election, polling 29.3% of the vote, down marginally from its peak of 30.6% in September.
Greens flock as Labor left flees
The Greens have more than doubled support since the last election, reaching 15.5% as a significant portion of left-wing voters abandoned Labor under their new leader Zack Polanski.
This puts them comfortably ahead of the weakening Liberal Democrats with 12.7 per cent of the vote. Ms Badenoch took over as Conservative Party leader last November and quickly faced doubts about her future, with critics accusing her of not making an impact or rolling out policy quickly enough.
He promised a new approach to politics during his bid to replace Rishi Sunak, initially focusing on restoring the Conservatives’ “first principles” after last year’s unprecedented election defeat.
Tory supporters were galvanized by Ms Badenoch’s most significant policy announcement to date at the party’s annual October conference: a pledge to abolish stamp duty. The Conservative leader also won praise for his budget response last month, in which he slammed Rachel Reeves and slammed £30bn of tax rises.
Tory challenge means deal possible
Determined to distance herself from the previous Tory government’s record, Ms Badenoch vowed to abandon net zero targets and withdraw Britain from the European Convention on Human Rights. But the scale of the challenge facing the Conservatives is highlighted by the fact that they are still polling well below the 23.7% share of the vote they achieved in the 2024 general election disaster.
On Sunday, a senior Conservative MP hinted at the possibility of a pre-election deal with Reform. Tory deputy leader Matt Vickers told a presenter to “come back and ask” about a possible election deal in 2029 if his party’s fortunes had not improved by then.
Although Ms Badenoch has dismissed rumors of a formal coalition, many Conservative Party MPs expect either an informal pre-election deal or an open joint offer. Next year’s local elections are seen as a major threat to both the Conservatives and Sir Keir’s Labor Party; The Greens and Reform are set to receive significant support from disaffected voters on both the left and the right.
