Analysis-Gulf states press US to neutralise Iran for good as Hormuz crisis deepens

By Samia Nakhoul

DUBAI, March 16 (Reuters) – Gulf Arab states have not asked the United States to go to war with Iran, but many are now calling for the Islamic Republic not to stand by allowing it to continue threatening the Gulf’s oil lifeblood and its economies, three Gulf sources told Reuters.

At the same time, these sources and five Western and Arab diplomats said Washington was pressuring Gulf countries to join the US-Israel war. According to three of them, President Donald Trump wants to show regional support for the campaign and strengthen both his international legitimacy and domestic support.

“There’s a broad feeling across the Gulf that Iran has crossed all the red lines with every Gulf country,” said Abdulaziz Sager, head of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center who is familiar with the government’s thinking.

“At first we defended them and opposed the war,” he said. “But when they started attacking us, they became enemies. There’s no other way to classify them.”

IRAN ATTACKS THE SIX GULF STATES

Tehran has already demonstrated its reach by attacking airports, ports, oil facilities and commercial centers in six Gulf countries with missiles and drones, disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global oil and underpins Gulf economies.

The attacks have reinforced Gulf fears that leaving Iran with a significant offensive weapon or weapons production capacity could embolden it to take the region’s energy lifeblood hostage when tensions rise.

As the war enters its third week, with US and Israeli airstrikes intensifying and Iran firing on US bases and civilian targets in the Gulf, a Gulf source said the prevailing mood among leaders was clear: Trump must comprehensively reduce Iran’s military capabilities.

The alternative is to live under constant threat, the source said. Iran has said it will continue to hold the region to ransom unless it is seriously weakened.

Predominantly Shiite Muslim Iran has often viewed the United States’ Sunni Arab Gulf neighbors, close allies that host American military bases, with deep suspicion, though its relations with Qatar and Oman are generally less fraught.

For years, Iran and its regional allies have been accused of attacks on energy facilities in the Gulf; At least the 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities – for which Iran denies responsibility – halved Saudi production and shook energy markets.

For Gulf leaders, inaction is now a greater risk.

The impact of Iran’s attacks this month goes far beyond specific material damage; It not only disrupts the flow of oil but also damages the hard-won image of stability and security that has supported Gulf countries’ efforts to expand trade and tourism and rely less on fossil fuel exports.

“If the Americans withdraw before the mission is completed, we will have to face Iran alone,” Sager said.

GULF FEARS OF TRIGGERING A WIDE WAR

In response to questions about these concerns, the White House said the United States had “crushed (Iran’s) ability to strike these weapons or produce more” and that Trump was “in close contact with our partners in the Middle East.”

Of the Gulf countries, only the United Arab Emirates responded. He said he “does not seek conflict or escalation” but affirmed his right to “take all necessary measures” to preserve sovereignty, security and integrity and ensure the safety of residents.

Sources in the region said unilateral military intervention by any Gulf country remained off the table because only collective intervention could prevent individual countries from facing retaliation.

Moreover, consensus is still not achieved. The six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE) held only one Zoom call, and no Arab summit convened to discuss coordinated action.

Gulf leaders remain fearful of triggering a wider, wildfire.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said last week that Gulf partners were “taking even more steps” and willing to “go on the offensive” while already working with Washington on collective and integrated air defense, but did not specify what else they might do.

A senior UAE official said his country chose to exercise restraint after Iran said the US military was using the UAE to attack Kharg Island, home to Iran’s main oil export terminal.

But Sager said Saudi Arabia, Iran’s main rival for regional influence, may be forced to retaliate if Iran crosses red lines, particularly by attacking major oil facilities or desalination plants or causing heavy casualties:

“In this case, Saudi Arabia will have no choice but to intervene.”

He said Riyadh would still try to calibrate any response to avoid further escalating tensions.

THE STRATEGIC DILEMMA OF THE GULF

Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics said Arab Gulf states face a fundamentally strategic dilemma: “balancing the direct threat of Iranian attacks with the much higher risk of being dragged into a war led by the United States and Israel.”

Participating in this campaign, he said, would add little to Washington’s military superiority but would sharply increase exposure to Iranian retaliation. The result is a calculated restraint: asserting sovereignty and marking red lines without engaging in a war that the Gulf states did not initiate or control.

Iran’s influence is now obvious. It effectively decides which ships can pass through the strait, something no state in the region finds acceptable.

“Now that Iran has shown it can block Hormuz, the Gulf faces a fundamentally different threat,” said Bernard Haykel, professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University. “If this problem is not addressed, this danger will be long-term.”

Trump on Sunday called for a coalition of nations to help reopen the waterway — initially with little success.

Haykel argued that although the global economy depends on Gulf oil and gas, much of it flows eastward to China, Japan and other Asian economies, meaning they too must bear responsibility.

“China has helped ensure the security of sea lanes outside Somalia; it may want to intervene here as well,” Haykel said.

(Additional reporting by Alexander Cornwell in Jerusalem and Parisa Hafezi in Dubai, Writing by Samia Nakhoul; Editing by Kevin Liffey)