Antarctic temperature spike could mean drier summer for Australia’s east coast

“We’ve had a very wet winter so far and the Meteorological Bureau’s seasonal estimation has been constantly wet more wet than a normal spring and summer for the next three months,” Jucker said.

“Now there is a question – is there a winning factor?”

Monash University World School atmosphere and Professor Julie Arblaster from the Environment, stratospheric temperature increase, the lower layer in the atmosphere – said the impacts filtered in the troposphere.

This can weaken the polar vortex, a wind group that revolves around the north and south poles. The vortex in the southern hemisphere usually occurs in autumn and becomes easier throughout the spring.

Polar vortex is surrounded by a strong Western wind surrounding Antarctica, and when they slow down, the winds spread to the north and Australia brackets for warmer, dried air.

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“When one of these events occurs, you can get longer and warmer conditions for most Australia. These winds can bring more wet air to the west coast of Tasmania and New Zealand.”

Jucker said that the scientific community recognized the two previous sudden stratospheric warming events on Antarctica.

“Both of these times had strong forest fires in the following summers, and especially in the 2019-20 black summer, was destructive.

“But they were both in dry conditions that were not like now”.

Official forest fire warnings do not report a high risk of fire for a large part of the southeast of Australia after wet winter this year.

However, the pockets of the country in South Australia in Murraylands and Southwest Victoria were extremely dry and are at risk of rising to summer.

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