Angry voters feeling burnt by inflation are turning to One Nation for answers
This is not an illusion.
The rise of One Nation is real and is now stealing voters not just from the Liberals and Nationals, but from Labor as well. The loss of support for Pauline Hanson’s party will worry Anthony Albanese but will not surprise him.
Depressed by high inflation, rising oil prices and more, voters are in a bad mood and are starting to take it out on the government as well as the opposition.
The March Resolve Political Monitor poll shows Labor losing 3 percentage points from the preselection, the Coalition losing 1 point and One Nation gaining 2 points. These shifts are all within or just outside the poll’s 2.3 percentage point margin of error, but it’s the trend that reveals how quickly support for One Nation is growing.
After hovering around 6 to 7 percent in the first half of 2025, One Nation’s vote rose to 8 percent in July 2025 and then began to rise in September, reaching double digits (12 percent) for the first time. He hasn’t looked back since.
Barnaby Joyce’s departure from the party in December coincided with a 14 per cent increase, and in the three months since then One Nation’s primary vote has increased each time, reaching a record high of 24 per cent.
The next election is in 2028, which is more than enough time for Labor and the Coalition to try to regain some of the support they’ve lost.
A double leadership change for the coalition (the appointment of Angus Taylor and Matt Canavan as Liberal and National leaders respectively) was made to halt the disastrous decline in the opposition’s fortunes, and the two men made it clear they planned to take on One Nation head-on.
But the official opposition, with just 22 per cent of the vote compared to One Nation’s 24, faces a very long road to recovering its fortunes. After all, in March last year the Coalition primary vote was 37 per cent; This was 15 percentage points above the current level, and even that level of primary votes would not guarantee a return to government.
Cost of living remains voters’ top concern: 43 percent of respondents cited it as their primary concern. No other issue reached double digits and this will not surprise the major parties.
The path back to political prominence for the coalition will depend on its ability to craft a meaningful policy proposal that addresses voters’ concerns about rising prices while criticizing the government’s performance.
Labor must address voters’ concerns more directly, and this has heralded further cost-of-living cuts in the next budget. However, increasing interest rates at the next meeting of the Central Bank on Tuesday will not benefit the government at all.
Fixing Australians’ cost-of-living pain is one thing; Addressing deep discontent among voters and distrust of politics and politicians is another. This is a longer-term issue and a key driver behind One Nation’s rise in the polls and the rise of independent candidates.
Fully 50 percent of voters say they will vote for minor parties and independents; This is a record in the Resolve poll and a far cry from the days when each of the major parties reliably won at least 40 per cent of voter support.
Hanson has been a household name since entering parliament, and in an age when voters are pessimistic about their future and the direction of the country, his disdain for the system and politics as usual is flourishing.
The poll shows that only 20 percent of voters think the national outlook will improve over the next 12 months, while 51 percent think it will get worse and 30 percent think it will remain unchanged.
In the first post-election poll conducted by Resolve in July 2025, the numbers were 25 percent “improving,” 33 percent “no change,” and 42 percent “worsening”; This is a huge shift in less than 12 months and a clear sign that voters are cranky and fed up.
The numbers for people’s personal outlook for the year ahead are similarly bleak. Over the next 12 months, 35 percent of people expect life to get worse, while 41 percent expect things to stay the same. Only 24 percent expect things to improve.
Discontent and disappointment are environments in which Hanson thrives. But there is a ceiling to his support. Given his history of controversial demonstrations and openly racist statements, some people will never vote for him, but there is a chance One Nation could further boost Labour’s support, at least in the short term.
Albanese and the Labor Party are warning.
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James Massola is the chief political commentator. He was previously national affairs editor and Southeast Asia correspondent. He won the Quill and Kennedy awards and was a Walkley finalist. Connect securely to Signal @jamesmassola.01Connect with: X or email.
