Grocery shock on the horizon for U.S. elections as Iran war drags on
A customer shops at a grocery store in Miami, Florida, on March 11, 2026.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
Rising food prices in the US as a result of the Iran war may be one of the most politically damaging consequences of the conflict, just months before the crucial US election.
Two years ago, President Donald Trump won re-election after railing against the high costs of eggs, bacon and other grocery staples. Now he and the Republican Party may face even higher food prices as they try to maintain control of Congress in this year’s midterm elections.
Democrats are trying to capitalize on the rise by blaming it on Trump’s decision to go to war, while Republicans are choosing his remarks to downplay economic forecasts that the prices of fuel and fertilizer needed to produce and transport the food voters eat will be higher.
Ranking member of the House Natural Resources Committee, D-Calif. “Our message is affordability and accountability,” his representative, Jared Huffman, said in an interview. “This is a pretty narrowly focused, pretty specific message, and on both of those grounds Trump makes our arguments even more persuasive.”
“There are a variety of ways this president is increasing food and energy costs and fueling the affordability crisis,” Huffman said. “We would have a chance to rein in the insanity on all of those fronts. I think that really came out very convincingly for Democrats in this election.”
The war and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran shook the global economy. Oil Gasoline prices rose, fertilizer costs soared, and markets plummeted.
grocery store shock
The next shock could come at the grocery store, a crucial pain point for millions of Americans who have been subjected to rising food prices for years. All of this is happening as the election season kicks off with primaries and campaign trail messaging. This year’s election will be seen as a referendum on Trump, who came to office promising to lower food costs.
“It makes them even angrier,” Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, a South Texas Democrat, told CNBC in an interview when asked how voters would react if food got more expensive. “When people hear this, they say, ‘Hey, I can’t pay for groceries, so you want to pay for a war in the Middle East?’ they say. “I think it’s going to be a tough sell.”
Gonzalez, who currently represents a swing seat, has seen his district turn significantly red this election cycle after Trump ordered Texas to redraw congressional district maps to benefit Republicans. Expected price increases in the market only strengthen the affordability narrative overcoming mid-term competition.
Economists warn that these factors will likely lead to increased costs for consumers.
“Food prices are going to move quite a lot,” said Kjetil Storesletten, an economist and professor at the University of Minnesota, where he is director of the Heller-Hurwicz Institute for Economics. “If you put these together, you see that this is a large portion of the price of food production, and the price has increased a lot, meaning that the entire increased price of fertilizer will be passed on to food.”
The upcoming increase in food prices probably won’t happen immediately, but it could happen before voters go to the polls in November. Farmers in the Northern Hemisphere are now preparing to plant their crops, meaning any spikes in this year’s harvest will take time to register.
“The amount of grain on the market is currently not affected by gas and fertilizer prices,” Storesletten said. “But it will be important for new corn and new grain being planted.”
Storeslettsen said, “It would be really helpful if we could open the Strait of Hormuz now. But imagine it will remain closed until the summer. We will see serious increases in food prices.” he said. Storesletten said that crops are generally harvested in late summer and early autumn, and prices are expected to rise during this period.
Grocery supply chains
Other grocery items that have more complex supply chains and require end-to-end refrigeration, such as fresh produce, may face a twofold cost increase. This is because, unlike grain, fresh produce requires energy to cool both during storage and transportation, and energy prices are now rising rapidly.
“It can’t be stockpiled because the produce has to be shipped and refrigerated,” said Max Teplitski, chief scientific officer of the International Fresh Produce Association, a trade group whose members include grocers and other retailers and fruit and vegetable producers. “Even keeping it on the shelf or in storage requires significant energy costs, which is likely to lead to higher prices for consumers as energy prices rise.”
Teplitski said the economic damage could be felt more as the closure of the Strait increases, such as the increase in plastic prices. Many food products are stored in plastic containers.
“The majority of domestic plastic production relies on natural gas,” he said. “But when oil is removed from the equation, natural gas becomes more of a premium commodity and less available for uses like packaging. So, we’re starting to see these secondary impacts start to increase.”
Satellite image shows smoke rising from the UAE port of Fujairah in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, on March 15, 2026, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.
NASA’s Worldview | via Reuters
Republicans in Congress admit that war and closing the strait will increase food prices.
“I think any disruption, any restriction in the transportation of raw materials, inputs can definitely affect the consumer,” the representative said. House Agriculture Committee chairman GT Thompson, R-Pa. he said in an interview. “That’s pretty obvious.”
In his address to the nation on Wednesday night, Trump gave no indication of U.S. moves to quickly reopen the strait.
“Countries in the world that receive oil from the Strait of Hormuz should pay attention to this transition,” he said. “They can do that easily. We will help, but they must take the lead in protecting the oil on which they are so desperately dependent.”
But Republicans and the White House have limited options for limiting food price increases. Most point to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz or a quick end to the war to limit damage.
Food inflation outpaced general inflation
Food inflation has been the tougher part of the inflation story that has plagued U.S. consumers since 2022. In February, food inflation fell to 3.1%, down from a high of 11.2% in September 2022, but still remained above overall inflation of 2.4%.
This is because food, whose prices are often more variable than other goods consumers buy, depends on a number of external factors to keep costs low. Storms, droughts and other natural disasters can affect harvests and reduce supply. Herd sizes can also affect prices at the grocery store, such as shrinking cattle herds in the United States; beef has increased rapidly in recent years.
It was a similar dilemma former President Joe Biden found himself in during the 2024 election, when egg prices soared in the wake of a bird flu outbreak that hampered the supply of laying hens. Republicans have moved past the 2024 elections, putting Trump back in the White House and removing Democrats from any control of Congress.
Now Republicans hope to resolve the conflict quickly and open the strait before too much damage is done.
“Our message is: We still don’t believe this will have a long-term impact, but the president initially stated: [it would] It will take four to six weeks,” Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., told CNBC.
