Nigel Farage leads bombshell poll on next General Election | Politics | News
According to the poll of 16,000 people, if a general election were held today, Reform would win a majority in the UK.
The More in Common poll revealed that Nigel Farage’s party would gain a majority of 115 with 381 MPs in Westminster.
In this hypothetical scenario, Reform UK would win 60% of the seats with 31% of the vote, while Labor would lose 326 seats due to a landslide in July 2024, falling to just 85 seats.
Luke Tryl, UK director at More in Common, said: “Reform continues to maintain its poll position in our MRP. Based on polling since the budget, it suggests Reform can hope to secure a significant triple-digit majority at tomorrow’s election. Meanwhile, the Polanski rise sees the Greens continue to make gains, with frustrated progressives putting them within reach of further gains from Labour.
“Labour, on the other hand, will fall to its present-day low, losing more than half its total number of seats in Parliament, falling to just 85 MPs. While the Conservative Party will lose a further 50 MPs from its 2024 low, this forecast actually represents a boost to the Conservative Party’s fortunes, signaling that the Badenoch bounce could at least stabilize their position in places like the ‘Blue Wall’ – even if they lose seats to Reform in their former Brexit-voting heartlands.” even.”
While this forecast represents a loss of more than 50 seats for the Conservatives, for the first time in a year the number of seats the Conservatives will win in More in Common’s MRP model projects has increased compared to the previous model.
The Greens are projected to double their presence in parliament from 4 to 9, but half of the current Liberal Democrat MPs are expected to lose their seats.
Mr Tryl said: “But there is an important caveat: tactical voting. For the first time, we have explored how tactical voting can reshape model projections. This suggests the Liberal Democrats could be big winners here – and if tactical voting is close to the scale we saw in Caerphilly, parties on the left could reject Reform’s majority and form a rainbow coalition of their own.
“The threat of a tactical vote, combined with the narrow margins of many of Reform’s projected victories, suggests their momentum may have stalled, at least temporarily. This, combined with the fact that we are still years away from the election, means that despite their success in 2025, the path to the next General Election is still unknown.”
Electoral Account said Labor started the new year in its worst ever position in the polls, at 18.5%.
But Sir Keir Starmer insisted he will still be Prime Minister next year.
Speaking to BBC reporter Laura Kuenssberg in Downing Street, Trump said, “I will sit in this seat in 2027.”
Asked if he wanted to acknowledge the “hole” he was in given backbencher discontent and Labour’s poor poll results, he said: “I’m not surprised people are frustrated. I completely understand that.”
“The reality is that since the crisis of 2008 most people have not seen their living standards improve, they have not seen public services moving in the right direction, they have seen them moving in the wrong direction and they have lost confidence in politics.”
He said he was given a “five-year mandate” to “turn this country around.”
“And I said we would do it seriously, with long-term measures that would really benefit the country – not with slogans, not with easy answers, not with everything that failed miserably in the last 14 years of the last Government, but do it differently and that’s what we’re doing.”
