Apple iPhone shipments to beat Samsung for the first time in 14 years
Apple CEO Tim Cook holds a new iPhone 17 Pro during an Apple special event held at Apple headquarters in Cupertino, California on September 09, 2025.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Apple It will sell more smartphones than Samsung in 2025, the first time it has done so in 14 years, Counterpoint Research said in a note Wednesday.
Apple will ship about 243 million iPhones this year, compared to Samsung’s 235 million, Counterpoint told CNBC. Apple is likely to have a 19.4% share of the global smartphone market, while Samsung is expected to have an 18.7% share.
Shipments refer to the number of devices that sellers send to retail channels and do not equal direct sales. However, they provide information about the demands and expectations regarding the sales of smartphone manufacturers.
Apple’s success is due to the iPhone 17 series, which launched in September, which had a “buffer” holiday sales season, according to Counterpoint.
The research firm said US sales of the iPhone 17 series, including the iPhone Air, were 12% higher than the iPhone 16 series, excluding the iPhone 16e, in the first four weeks after launch. In China, a critical market for Apple, sales of the iPhone 17 series were 18% higher than the previous model in the same period.
“Beyond the extremely positive market response to the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the improved shipping outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering the upgrade phase,” Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Yang Wang said in a note.
Counterpoint, meanwhile, said Samsung could face challenges from Chinese players in the low-to-mid tier of the smartphone market, which could hamper the South Korean giant’s ability to reclaim the top spot.
Apple’s long-term support
Counterpoint Research predicts that Apple will hold the top spot in the global smartphone market by 2029. Analysts listed several reasons for this.
First, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between the second quarter of 2023 and 2025.
“These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will create a sizeable demand base that is expected to drive iPhone shipment growth in the coming quarters,” Counterpoint Research said.
Apple benefits from a lower-than-expected impact of tariffs Given the trade truce between the US and China. This has helped Apple’s broader supply chain and growth in certain regions, such as emerging markets. The tech giant also benefited from a weak US dollar and a “resilient economic outlook” that boosted consumer confidence.
“Due to these structural headwinds, Apple is well positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” Wang said.
Meanwhile, according to Counterpoint’s prediction, Apple is expected to launch a foldable smartphone alongside the entry-level iPhone 17e next year. The research firm said it expects previously announced improvements to Apple’s virtual assistant Siri, as well as a “major iPhone design refresh” in 2027, to bolster Apple’s dominance over the next few years.
“By expanding its product lineup across multiple price tiers, including the growing ‘e’ series and potential adjustments to the Pro and Base launch cycles, Apple is strategically positioning itself to capture growing demand from eager consumers, particularly in emerging markets, and strengthen its presence in the lower premium segment, which is projected to grow faster than the overall market,” Counterpoint said. he said.
“Given the growing preference for the iOS ecosystem, compatibility between devices, and the significant number of legacy models in Apple’s installed base due to renewal, Apple will continue to lead over other smartphone OEMs through the end of the decade.”
