Appointing a new leader is the least of Iran’s troubles | Iran

His supporters claim that Iran’s Assembly of Experts agreed on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son as the next supreme leader, and that the announcement was delayed due to a dispute over voting procedures.

If it is decided that the assembly does not need to meet in person to vote, its secretariat can simply declare that consensus has been reached.

“Khamenei’s name will continue,” said Hosseinali Eshkevari, a council member tasked with electing the new leader. “The vote has been taken and will be announced soon.”

But former president Hassan Rouhani hinted at a delay, saying any announcement “should be made at an appropriate time that will not harm public opinion’s focus on the sacred defense.”

Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment will likely be rejected by Donald Trump, who called him “unacceptable”. The US president insisted on playing a decisive role in the election; Israel has threatened to kill the next religious leader and those who elect him.

Still, there are forces in Iran who say handing over power to a relative novice in wartime would be devastating. They believe that defense efforts should be left to the armed forces and Ali Larijani, the experienced secretary of the supreme national security council. Khamenei, who was his assassinated father’s deputy chief of staff, is closely involved in the inner workings of the supreme leader’s office and is presented as a rejuvenated version of him.

Iran is governed by a tripartite leadership council, including president Masoud Pezeshkian. On Saturday, Pezeshkian made an unsuccessful attempt to reset relations with Gulf states by apologizing for Iran’s attacks on their territory. He announced that it was decided to end the attacks if the Gulf countries do not allow attacks on Iran from their own countries.

Pezeshkian’s comments came after Russian mediation and a positive response was expected from at least two Gulf countries. However, domestic opposition to his stance and continued attacks on the Gulf states prevented this from happening. Trump also called Pezeshkian’s move a humiliating capitulation on Truth Social; it was a triumphant tone that further weakened Pezeshkian.

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi defended his apology and stated that in Iranian culture, apologizing is “a sign of dignity and strength”.

Pezeshkian’s statement was immediately opposed by the Iranian military, which viewed US bases in the Gulf as legitimate targets in what they viewed as an existential war of self-defense. So far, 10,000 civilian buildings have been damaged in Iran.

The military also took umbrage with Pezeshkian’s claim that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps opened fire voluntarily.

Explaining Iran’s attitude in a television interview, Larijani said: “We told our neighbors and we repeat it: If the Americans will be provided with a base to attack Iran from your territory, it is our unquestionable right to respond to those bases. We have said this clearly and we are not lying.”

He also pressured Gulf states to consider the role of the bases if they believe that Israel is the main source of insecurity in the region and that the United States is Israel’s chief sponsor.

“There is no point in a country declaring its friendship with us, but at the same time, the enemy has the base to attack Iran. Countries in the region must either prevent the United States from using their territory against Iran, or we will prevent it.”

“America’s prestige in the region has been damaged, and these countries have realized that America can no longer ensure their security.”

Military sources said the scope of attacks on US assets in the Gulf will be expanded in response to the US attack on oil refineries and fuel depots in Iran. Iran responded to the attack by reducing its maximum daily oil consumption but said supplies were stable. Iranian officials did not deny receiving intelligence assistance from the Russians.

Western diplomats said they saw no decline in Iran’s ability to launch drone and missile strikes, warning that the size of military assets being poured into the region did not mean the United States intended to make a premature unilateral declaration of victory.

Larijani stated in the TV interview that he was confident that Iranian society had not turned its back on the government and said that Trump’s plan to divide the country into ethnic parts would be rejected by Iranians, including the Kurds.

Despite growing anger at Iran for its fire on Gulf states, most of these governments do not yet support a counterstrike against Tehran that would put them on the side of the United States and Israel.

Iran admitted that 60 percent of its missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles were directed to the Gulf countries and 40 percent to Israel. Arab League foreign ministers met on Sunday to discuss their options and a Western diplomat said: “They are running out of patience. The attractiveness of their economies and their reputation for stability are being thrown into the trash.”

Oman was telling its neighbors that Iran’s offer regarding its nuclear program was serious, in talks that were left unfinished due to the US-Israeli attack. But any solution would need to be much more comprehensive and include the Iran-Gulf cooperation council.

The United Arab Emirates government described Iran’s attacks as brutal and unprovoked and claimed that more than 1,400 ballistic missiles and drones were targeted at Iran’s infrastructure.

“These attacks constitute a clear violation of international law and the UN charter, a violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the UAE, and a direct threat to its security and stability,” the statement said. expressions were used.

Some Arab diplomats think that there is a greater risk that Israel will emerge stronger from this war, despite all its reservations about Iran’s role in the region. Amr Moussa, former secretary-general of the Arab League, said: “The ongoing attack on Iran is not just an adventure in which Israel is involved. [Benjamin] “Netanyahu managed to drag the United States along, but a planned strategic American move in which Washington used Israel as a regional partner was a major step towards turning the Middle East, including the Arab world, into a regional geopolitical situation that Israel seeks to rule.”