As Californians decide fate of Prop. 50, GOP states push their own redistricting plans

WASHINGTON— The rushed effort to revise California’s congressional districts has attracted national attention, raised large sums of money and renewed hopes among Democrats that the effort could help counter a wave of Republican redistricting initiatives fomented by President Trump.

But if Democrats are successful in California, the question remains: Will it be enough to change the balance of power in Congress?

To regain control of the House of Representatives, Democrats need to flip three seats from Republicans in next year’s midterm elections. That slim margin led the White House to push Republicans to redraw maps in GOP states this summer in an effort to keep Democrats in the minority.

Texas was the first to signal it would follow Trump’s edict, kicking off a rare redistricting arms race midway through the decade that is sweeping through California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom is drafting Proposition 50 to tap into his state’s massive inventory of congressional seats.

Californians appear ready to approve the measure on Tuesday. If they do so, Democrats could potentially gain five seats in the House of Representatives; This result will essentially offset Republican efforts in Texas.

While Democrats and Republicans in other states have also moved to redraw their maps, it’s too early to tell which party will have a net gain or to predict voter sentiment a year later, when a lopsided election in either direction could make remapping pointless.

GOP leaders North Carolina And Missouri Ohio Republicans could pick up two more seats if new maps are approved, which would likely yield one new GOP seat each In the new redrawn map approved on Fridayand GOP leaders in Indiana, Louisiana, Kansas and Florida are considering or taking steps to redraw their maps. These moves could lead to at least 10 new Republican seats in total, according to experts who track redistricting efforts.

To counter this, Democrats in Virginia accepted the constitutional amendment If approved by voters, this would give lawmakers the power and option to draw a new map ahead of next year’s elections. Illinois leaders are weighing redistricting options, and New York has filed a lawsuit aimed at redrawing a GOP-held district. But concerns about legal challenges have already hobbled the party’s efforts in Maryland, and the potential decline of the Black vote has slowed moves in Illinois.

So far, partisan maneuvering appears to favor Republicans.

“Democrats can’t find their own way out of their gerrymandering problem. The math just doesn’t make sense,” said David Daly, a senior fellow at the nonprofit FairVote. “They don’t have enough opportunities or enough goals.”

Complicating factors for Democrats

Democrats have more than political calculations to weigh. In many states, they are hampered by constitutional restrictions, legal deadlines, and the fact that most state maps can no longer be easily redrawn for partisan interests. In California, Proposition 50 marks a departure from the state’s commitment to independent redistricting.

Democrats’ hesitations in states like Maryland and Illinois also underscore growing tensions within the party as it tries to maximize its partisan advantage and build a House majority that could thwart Trump in his final two years in office.

“Despite deeply shared frustrations with the state of our country, Maryland’s mid-cycle redistricting presents a reality where the legal risks are too high, the timeline for action is precarious, the downside risk for Democrats is catastrophic, and the certainty of our current map will be undermined,” said Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson. In a letter to state lawmakers last week.

In Illinois, Black Democrats are voicing concerns about the plans and vowing to oppose maps that would reduce the share of Black voters in congressional districts where they have historically dominated.

“I can’t think of this as just a short-term fight. I have to think about the long-term consequences of doing something like this,” said state Sen. Willie Preston, chairman of the Illinois Senate Black Caucus.

Adding to those concerns is the possibility that the Supreme Court’s conservative majority could weaken a key provision of the landmark Voting Rights Act and limit lawmakers’ ability to consider race when redrawing maps. The outcome and its impact on the 2026 midterms will depend largely on the timing and scope of the court’s decision.

The court has been asked to rule on the case by January, but a decision could come later. Timing is crucial, as many states are hitting filing deadlines for 2026 congressional races or holding their primaries in the spring and summer.

If the court strikes down the provision known as Part 2, advocacy groups estimate Republicans could pick up at least a dozen House seats in southern states.

“I think all of this will play into the decisions of legislatures,” said Kareem Crayton, vice president of the Brennan Center for Justice. He added that the upcoming court decision is “an extra layer of uncertainty in an already uncertain time.”

Republican-led states continue to advance

Support for Proposition 50 raised more than $114 million, with support from the party’s biggest names, including former President Obama, and added momentum to national Democrats seeking to regain control of Congress after the midterm elections.

In an email to supporters Monday, Newsom said fundraising goals had been met and asked supporters to try to get involved in other states.

“I’m going to ask you to help others; states like Indiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, and more are trying to stop Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting efforts. More information on this issue coming soon,” Newsom wrote.

Indiana Republican Governor Mike Braun called a special session It begins Monday with the goal of “protecting Hoosiers from efforts in other states that seek to silence their voices in Washington and ensure the fairness of their representation in Congress.”

In Kansas, the GOP chairman of the state Senate said last week: There were enough signatures Republicans in the House have called for a special session to redraw state maps. Republicans in the state House will need to meet the challenge to move forward.

Republicans control Louisiana’s legislature voted last week postponing the state’s 2026 primary election. The move is intended to give lawmakers more time to redraw maps if the Supreme Court rules in the federal voting case.

If judges halt the practice of designating districts by race, Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis stated The state will likely enter the redistricting race in the middle of the decade.

Shaniqua McClendon, president of Vote Save America, said the GOP’s broad redistricting push underscores why Democrats should follow California’s lead, even if they don’t like the tactic.

“Democrats have to be serious about what’s at stake. I know they don’t like the methods, but we have to think about the end,” McClendon said. “We need to be able to take back the House; that’s the only way we can hold Trump accountable.”

in New York, A lawsuit was filed last week FairVote’s Daly said a congressional district disenfranchising Black and Latino voters would be a “Hail” to Democrats hoping to improve their chances in the 2026 midterm elections.

Dave Wasserman, a congressional forecaster for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Utah could also present an opportunity for Democrats to pick up an outside seat. The court decision came out this summer Utah calls for Republican leaders to redraw The state’s congressional map resulted in two districts that Democrats could potentially flip.

Wasserman called the various redistricting efforts an “arms race…Democrats use what Republicans did in Texas to legitimize California, Republicans use California as justification for their actions in other states.”

‘Political tribalism’

Some political observers said the outcome of the California election could inspire more political maneuvering in other states.

“I think the passage of Proposition 50 in California could show other states that voters can support redistricting in the middle of the decade if necessary when under attack,” said Jeffrey Wice, a New York Law School professor who directs the New York Elections, Census and Redistricting Institute. “I think this will definitely accelerate progress in places like New York.”

Similar to California, New York will need to ask voters to approve a constitutional amendment, but that won’t happen in time for the midterms.

“This could also embolden Republican states that are hesitant about redistricting and say, ‘If voters in California support redistricting in the middle of the decade, maybe they’ll support it here, too,’” Wice said.

The idea that the redistricting trend was gaining traction in the middle of the decade is part of a broader problem, according to Erik Nisbet, director of the Center for Communication and Public Policy at Northwestern University.

“This is a symptom of a 20-year trend of increasing polarization and political tribalism,” he said. “And unfortunately, our tribalism is now breaking out not only among ourselves but also between states.”

He argued that both sides sacrifice democratic norms and ideas of procedural justice, as well as ideas of representative democracy, for the sake of political gain.

“I’m worried about what the outcome of this will be,” he said.

Ceballos reported from Washington and Mehta from Los Angeles.