As other Iran‑allied groups are engaging in the Mideast war, Yemen’s Houthis hold back
CAIRO (AP) — Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have so far remained on the sidelines. Iran war expands Questions arise about why and when the war-hardened group in the Middle East might take action. join the fight.
Iran retaliated against the USA and Israel with missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. American military bases and other locations in Gulf Arab countriesIt disrupts trade routes, chokes fuel supplies and threatens regional air traffic.
Iran’s new religious leader Ayatollah Mojtaba KhameneiOn Thursday, in his first written statement since replacing his father, who was killed in the opening salvo of the war, he suggested Iran could open the door. New fronts in the conflict Analysts say it is a sign that the Houthis may soon step in.
Experts said the Houthis have so far been reluctant to fight because they fear assassinations of their leaders, internal divisions in Yemen and uncertainty about arms supplies.
But that could change as Iran seeks to increase pressure on global oil supply routes through potential attacks by the Houthis, who have previously been successful. Targeting oil facilities Analysts said it was in the region.
Iran asserts its influence in the Middle East through its proxies in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen.
Some of its closest allies have already joined the conflict. Hezbollah resumes attacks on Israel Two days after the attack on Iran and just 15 months after the last attack Israel-Hezbollah war It ended with the ceasefire in November 2024. Militias affiliated with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq drone attack claim At US bases in Erbil.
Meanwhile, the Houthis have only issued protests and declarations condemning the Iran war, unlike the missile and drone attacks they launched against Israel after October 7, 2023, and the shipping waves in the Red Sea. War in the Gaza Strip.
Here’s a look at the Houthis’ military capabilities and where they stand in the conflict.
Houthis have connections with Iran
Armed by Iran, the Houthis captured most of Yemen’s north and its capital, Sanaa, in 2014, exiling the country’s internationally recognized government. A Saudi-led coalition supporting the Yemeni government entered the conflict the following year, and the Houthis have been engaged in a long-running but largely stalemated civil war in Yemen ever since.
Although the Houthis share some political and religious ties with Iran, they follow a distinct doctrine of Shiite Islam and are independent of Iran’s religious leader, unlike the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and several Iran-backed Iraqi militia groups.
Still, they are key to Iran’s regional influence, and the current war is unlikely to weaken it, according to Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank.
“From Tehran’s perspective, the Houthis have proven to be a capable and effective front capable of exerting real pressure,” Nagi said.
He said the Houthi leaders’ decision to distance themselves from the conflict was a calculated choice fully coordinated with the Iranians.
Two Houthi members of the group’s media and political offices told The Associated Press that the rebels’ weapons stockpiles have dwindled after attacks during the Israel-Hamas war. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media, said the Iran war has further hindered the flow of arms.
Another official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the weapons issue about which he was well informed, said the group nevertheless had a large stockpile of drones.
Nagi said the Houthis are increasing their power by recruiting more fighters, relying on local arms production and sending reinforcements to Yemen’s western coastline on the Red Sea, signaling that they are preparing to escalate tensions.
“The decision is not about unwillingness to intervene, but about timing,” Nagi said. “Iran’s overall strategy appears to be to avoid putting all the cards on the table at once, instead gradually using its partners and capabilities as the conflict progresses.”
Nagi added that the Houthis would likely step in if the conflict expands or if they perceive an existential threat to Iran, such as a significant deterioration in military capabilities.
Houthis targeted oil transportation and infrastructure
Houthi leader Abd al-Malik al-Houthi has repeatedly emphasized the group’s readiness to intervene and claimed its “hands are on alert,” but it is unclear what this intervention would entail.
“The Houthis are of course ready for any war,” said Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London. “Recently, some weapons have been moved to different parts of Yemen… but it is still not clear whether this is for military escalation or not.”
If the Houthis go to war, it is likely Attacks on ships continue in the Red Sea Nagi said that the Gulf of Aden also hit Israel. It may also join Iran’s attacks on Gulf countries, targeting US military assets and interests.
Attacks on ships increased during the Israel-Hamas war Shipping in the Red SeaBefore the war, approximately $1 trillion worth of goods passed through each year. Rebels too He launched a drone at Israel.
If the Houthis join the Iran war, their primary targets will likely be oil tankers, analysts said, as shipping represents the most immediate pressure point and attacking it would signal escalation while impacting energy supply chains.
Attacks on oil facilities may also be considered. The Houthis have been Hit oil facilities in Saudi Arabia during the long-running conflict against the Saudi-led coalition.
Nagi, meanwhile, said that US military facilities in the region could also become targets.
What’s at risk?
Abdel-Bari Taher, political analyst and former head of Yemen’s press corps, said the decision to join the war was influenced by the internal situation in Yemen. recent deadly conflicts In South Yemen, popular opposition to joining the war in Sanaa and its aftermath increased caution among Houthi leaders. high profile assassinations.
Two Houthi officials from the group’s media and political offices said the United States had sent warnings against joining the war through Omani mediators. They said Houthi political and security leaders were also warned that their mobile phones were being spied on by the United States and Israel. Fearing possible Israeli assassinations, Houthi leaders have been instructed not to appear in public, officials said.
“Despite these constraints and complex internal and regional dynamics, Houthi involvement in the conflict remains a possibility,” Taher said.
Al-Muslimi, the Chatham House analyst, said the Houthis do not have the military capacity or Yemen’s internal interests to force them to join the war, and the group appears determined to do so. Ceasefire with the USA brokered by Oman last year.
“They especially hope to fight Israel, but they cannot be the ones to fire first,” al-Muslimi said.
He said the Houthis would likely need a local Yemeni cause to join the war, which would need a reason to strengthen support among their local base.
al-Muslimi notes: The Houthis are “a local group that Iran uses and supports, but did not create.”
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Associated Press reporter Ahmed al-Haj in Aden, Yemen, contributed to this report.
