As the Coalition self-immolates, Anthony Albanese strides the world stage

The first thing to make clear is that this is not a mutual defense agreement like the Pukpuk Pact signed with Papua New Guinea last month.

Indonesia, which has non-alignment at the heart of its foreign policy and is far more powerful than PNG, would never accept anything resembling such a thing.

For example, it seems unlikely that Prabowo will come to Australia’s aid in the event of a future US-led conflict with China. The agreement, which will be formally signed in Jakarta next year, will also fail to trigger Australian ships to sail into the South China Sea if Chinese ships next encroach on Indonesian waters off the Natuna islands.

Rather, the basis for the agreement appears to be communication and trust, which has been missing in the relationship’s turbulent recent history.

In discussing the agreement, Albanese and Wong repeatedly evoked 1995, a sort of golden age in Australia-Indonesia relations when Paul Keating and then-president Suharto emerged with similar language.

Loading

Suharto’s 32-year reign collapsed in 1998 amid the Asian financial crisis. The positive atmosphere between the two soured the following year when Australia sent a peacekeeping mission to East Timor.

Prabowo, a true Indonesian nobleman, last week elevated his former father-in-law, Suharto, to national hero status, ostensibly for his military service during the struggle for independence. This move horrified people old enough to remember the regime’s corruption and murders.

If this was a good spell for Alban, it’s a good spell for the dead Indonesian autocrat, too.

One of the challenges for an Australian prime minister since the end of the days of Keating and Suharto has been to get Indonesians interested in looking south.

Indonesia’s vast archipelago, with a population of approximately 300 million, is projected to become the world’s fourth largest economy by 2050, after China, America and India. This is our great northern shield.

While newly elected Australian prime ministers are making a virtue of heading to Jakarta, Indonesian leaders are unlikely to think of Canberra first, according to research by the University of Melbourne. Professor Tim Lindsey.

Prabowo’s first official visit to Australia comes more than a year after his inauguration and presidential trips to more than 20 countries.

But the settlement agreement shows he has genuine interest in Australia.

One of the striking images from last week’s leaders’ press conference (not the conference, because Prabowo doesn’t like questions) was the hot press that was quickly followed by the three big dogs (Albanian, Wong and Defense Minister Marles) on Prabowo, full-court, with everyone wearing matching HMAS Canberra hats.

It was symbolic. Courting Prabowo was a team effort.

Joko Widodo was Indonesia’s president for the first few years of Albanese’s tenure in Australia, so the Prime Minister and Prabowo were essentially just acquaintances until their visit to Jakarta this year.

Albanese brought a small red scarf with the words “Australia loves Indonesia” written on it for Prabowo’s beloved cat Bobby.

Small, unconventional touches in the Prime Minister’s diplomacy – such as bringing “Albo” branded beers to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer for a dinner in Downing Street – can be important. Unpretentious, charming.

So what does Prabowo want from the agreement with Australia? After all, if there is a conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea, we are on the wrong side of the map.

Loading

One consideration is that Indonesia’s defense outlook has shifted from internal threats such as separatism and terrorism to external threats such as China’s seizure of nearly all of the South China Sea and the potential consequences from great power rivalry.

Due to budget constraints, Indonesia’s predominantly land-based military has been slow to modernize and adapt. AUKUS partners such as Australia, which currently has deep and historic relations with the world’s great power, the United States, may be useful.

Another consideration is Prabowo’s prolific network structure.

“He sees himself as an international statesman who travels the world, not only developing partnerships with different actors, but also raising Indonesia’s profile,” he says Doctor Natalie SambhiHe is the managing director of Verve Research, an independent think tank.

Prabowo is much more active on the world stage than his predecessor Widodo, who prioritized domestic infrastructure over foreign relations.

Sambhi states that in addition to seeking close ties with Australia and America, Prabowo was photographed in Beijing in September with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, with whom he also has close ties, China’s Xi Jinping, and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un.

“So the photos of Albo wearing a hat on HMAS Canberra are part of the leader’s photo album,” he says. “He says, ‘Look how international I am. I have all these different kinds of relationships.’ And no one can accuse him of being in the Western bloc or the global south bloc, because he belongs to everything.”

Loading

So the agreement with Australia needs to be seen in this wider, globe-trotting context.

Some assume the deal will oblige the Indonesians to inform the Australians if the Russians come knocking on Indonesia’s door again, wanting to establish an air base in Papua province, as they appeared to have done this year.

Despite the tensions in Australia when the request was made public, Indonesia will never agree to anything that would eliminate its non-aligned status. In the future, such futile entreaties from Russia or another troubled country may not even pass the threshold of consultation that the Indonesians consider appropriate.

Yet, given the strategic geography and growing status of the archipelago, there is no doubt that in the future there will be knocks on much more serious doors that Australia will want to know about – and vice versa.

If the agreement had been in place before September 2021, we can assume that Australia would have “consulted” on AUKUS.

This could be a good thing, Sambhi says, as it could reduce the “diplomatic shock” Indonesia is feeling.

“What I expect to see is what else will be announced from Indonesia in the next few months, aimed at balancing any changes against the perception of non-alignment,” he says, suggesting a possible deal with China is being prepared.

It is not uncommon for Indonesia to play on the field, especially under Prabowo. But for a mid-power country like Australia, it’s nice to be a notch on that bedpost.

Zach Hope is Southeast Asia correspondent Sydney Morning Herald.