Trump’s shifting remarks on Taiwan are perfect for China to exploit | Taiwan

It’s been a troubling few days for the Taiwanese government. When Donald Trump met Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday, many feared the unpredictable US leader could upend Washington’s longstanding support for Taipei.

But beyond Xi’s sharply worded statement highlighting China’s claims to Taiwan, which China has never claimed as part of its territory, early signs looked good for Taipei.

After emerging from his first meeting with Xi on Thursday evening, an unusually shy Trump dodged reporters’ questions about Taiwan. This issue was not mentioned in the White House’s statements regarding the meeting.

But that welcome silence on Air Force One began to unravel on Friday when Trump told reporters that Washington would soon “make a decision” on multibillion-dollar arms packages to be sent to Taipei as part of a commitment to help Taiwan maintain self-defense capabilities.

An interview with Fox News that aired later the same day generated further buzz, with Trump declaring that he was “not considering traveling 9,500 miles to participate in a war” in defense of Taiwan.

He later called the arms sale to Taipei a “very good negotiating chip” for Washington and Beijing, adding that he “doesn’t want one of them to be independent.”

Washington has long been uncertain about whether it would defend Taiwan if China invaded.

Trump’s comments raised concerns among Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which supports continued de facto independence.

On Sunday, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te issued a statement emphasizing that U.S. arms sales are the “most important deterrent” against regional conflicts. Calling Taiwan’s security a “core global interest”, he said: “Ensuring peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait has always been in Taiwan’s high consensus and common interest. [and] United States.

But while Taipei may be discouraged, J Michael Cole, a senior fellow at the Global Taiwan Institute, cautioned against reading too much into Trump’s comments.

“We have to keep in mind that depending on what he’s heard lately or who he’s talked to, he tends to say a lot of things that contradict himself in the moment, sometimes within 24 hours,” Cole said.

“My expectation is that, despite recent statements, the Trump administration will bow to long-standing US policy.”

Cole called on observers to “pay more attention to what the United States does in the coming weeks and months,” noting remarks by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirming Washington’s continued commitment to the status quo as a more reliable measure.

This sentiment is shared by DPP legislator Kuan-ting Chen, who said: “Taiwan should not over-interpret any comments made during high-level US-China interactions.” But Chen added that Taipei “should not ignore the risk that China could amplify and exploit” Trump’s comments.

Beijing tried to do just that; Trump’s independence comments “sent shockwaves” through Taiwan, dealing a “serious blow” to the DPP and issuing a clear warning to Taiwan’s “separatist forces”, state-run outlets said.

While Beijing’s framing may turn into hyperbole, the US leader’s remarks worsened pre-existing rifts between the DPP and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), which once fought against the Chinese Communist Party during China’s civil war but now advocates warmer cross-strait relations.

Yang Kuang-shun, a co-founder of the Taipei-based think tank US Taiwan Watch, said any obvious signs that Washington does not fully support Taiwan’s independence are seized upon by the KMT to “push its agenda of opposing Taiwan’s independence.”

In the days since the Beijing summit, the KMT has called on the DPP to abandon what it sees as the ruling party’s pro-independence platform. Also criticized was the DPP’s handling of cross-strait relations, which had become increasingly tense under Lai, whom Beijing described as a dangerous “separatist”.

Charles I-hsin Chen, a former KMT legislator and chairman of the foreign affairs and national defense committee, said the DPP was “placing a one-sided bet on its relations with the United States” and Trump’s statements showed that Taiwan “cannot pin everything on Washington.”

“This highlights the need for Taiwan to move towards an equidistant approach between the United States and China, that is, giving equal weight to cross-strait relations and relations with the United States, in order to secure Taiwan’s greatest interests,” he said.

But Chen also expressed concern about Trump’s framing of the arms packages as a negotiating tool, saying Taiwan could be reduced to “a pawn to be moved” with “no initiative and no institutions.”

Concern that Taiwan could become a pawn among the superpowers is one of the few points of agreement between the DPP and the KMT; but the parties cannot agree on the causes and solutions.

Chen, the DPP lawmaker, said arms supply cooperation between Taiwan and the United States “never required the consent of a third country” and “should remain that way,” referring to China.

“If arms sales to Taiwan are described as a bargaining chip, Beijing could use this to test the limits of Washington’s commitment to Taiwan,” he said. “Taiwan must make it clear to the international community that it cannot be exchanged.”